The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Corangamite, held by Sarah Henderson
As the second-most marginal seat in the country, Corangamite is set to be hotly contested at the federal election and may become part of a bigger story about Liberal women.
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Corangamite
Incumbent: Sarah Henderson
Margin: 0.03 per cent
Candidates:
Liberal: Sarah Henderson
Labor: Libby Coker
Local issues:
Drought, seasonal workers, cost of living, energy and climate change will be key issues in the regional electorate, along with infrastructure, health and education.
SEAT A LINE BALL AT ELECTION
As the second-most marginal seat in the country, Corangamite is set to be hotly contested at the May election.
Voters have already had a visit from Prime Minister Scott Morrison and big local funding announcements as Labor and the Liberals battle for the large coastal and regional seat.
It’s also set to become part of a bigger story about the shrinking number of Liberal women on election night if the seat falls to Labor.
THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN VICTORIA:
CHISHOLM: Banks exit could determine result
DEAKIN: Sukkar’s seat could go either way
FLINDERS: The ugly fight of the federal election
HIGGINS: Wentworth-style battle for O’Dwyer’s seat
INDI: Will McGowan’s seat stay independent?
KOOYONG: Frydenberg under pressure
LA TROBE: Seat set to go to preferences again
MACNAMARA: ‘Anything can happen’ in Danby’s old seat
MALLEE: Nats face fight after ‘sugar baby‘ scandal
Liberal MP Sarah Henderson, a former ABC reporter, has previously said she considers herself the underdog despite winning the seat against Labor candidate Libby Coker, a former local mayor, Age journalist and teacher, in 2016.
The Liberals have already pledged a cash splash of $700 million worth for infrastructure projects for her seat in the Budget, in addition to $2 billion for a high-speed train from Geelong to Melbourne.
The Liberals will be hoping a preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will help Henderson across the line.
But political experts agree the Liberal MP is in trouble, saying a redistribution in the seat and the Liberal Party’s ousting of Malcolm Turnbull in August have damaged her chances.
“Sarah Henderson will lose this seat despite being a high profile and effective member,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp.
“Her margin shrank to almost zero in the redistribution. She will be caught up in the anti-Lib sentiment we saw at the Vic state election in 2018.”
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras also predicted Henderson would lose.
“Corangamite on its new boundaries is the second most marginal seat in the whole country, second only to Herbert,” he said.
“The seat of Corangamite shifted to the east, taking in the Bellarine Peninsula from Corio. Corangamite lost the southern Geelong suburbs of Belmont, Highton and Wandana Heights to Corio, and lost rural areas on its western edge, including Colac, to Wannon.
“These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 3.1 per cent to a very slim 0.02 per cent.”
Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said: “Usually candidate factors only go so far. It’s very difficult to hold on with no margin.”
The Liberal Party could be left with just a handful of women in the lower house — potentially its lowest number since the 1980s — if Henderson loses along with Lucy Wicks and Nicolle Flint in the marginal seats of Robertson and Boothby.
Ann Sudmalis in Gilmore and Jane Prentice in Ryan will also go at the election, through retirement and losing a preselection battle respectively, leaving only Sussan Ley, Karen Andrews, Nola Marino and Melissa Price in safe seats.
If former foreign affairs minister Julie Bishop’s successor is a woman, she would also be in a safe seat.
CORANGAMITE HOT TOPICS: ROAD SAFETY, HEALTH, RETIREE TAX
Road safety, health funding, and Labor’s so-called retiree tax have emerged as issues for voters in Corangamite.
A social media analysis by Storyful Australia also shows Liberal MP Sarah Henderson is having more cut through with voters online than Labor’s Libby Coker.
Henderson’s posts about the retiree tax — Labor’s plan to axe tax refunds for franking credits — has attracted more attention from punters online in the past month than Coker’s posts.
Other issues that appear to be striking a nerve with voters is tourist driver safety on the Great Ocean Road and funding for MRI scans at Epworth Geelong Hospital.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN VICTORIA
Monash University Political Scientist Dr Zareh Ghazarian says issues within Victoria’s state Liberal party could spill over as people decide who they will vote for federally.
“Voters tend to be aware of the difference between state and federal governments and party leaders, so we would expect them to vote on what federal Labor has promised rather than their experience of the Andrews government,” he said.
However the bitter public divisions within Victorian Liberals since last November’s election loss would not endear them to voters, he said, and that instability — coupled with similar ructions at the federal level — “will play a big role in deciding who people vote for”.
Dr Ghazarian says infrastructure, the economy and employment will be the issues residents want to hear about pre-election.
“The trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been showing a swing towards the Labor Party. This means that any Liberal MP who holds their seat with a margin of five per cent or less is in for a hard time to keep their job,” he said.
“There is also a complication at this election. The Electoral Commission has undertaken a major redistribution of federal seats which has resulted in at least two Victorian seats currently held by the Liberal Party to be notionally Labor (ie. if the seat boundary was used at the 2016 election, Labor would have won it).”
Dr Ghazarian said because of this key seats Corangamite and Dunkley are deemed to be notionally Labor so both sitting MPs will be starting from a disadvantage.
“We would expect the Liberal Party to pour in resources and campaigning staff into these two seats in order to hold them. If it can’t hold these seats, the party will not be able to hold government,” he said.
Dr Ghazarian expects whoever takes Chisholm will win government.
“It is very difficult for individual MPs to resist a swing and, if it is as strong as opinion polls have suggested, these ultra marginal seats will be the first to go on election night,” he said.
- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
Originally published as The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Corangamite, held by Sarah Henderson
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