Green shoots of optimism are increasing hopes that we are through the worst of this cycle – both here and offshore. A more rapid mid-year decline in inflation, without an obvious rise in unemployment, has emboldened those looking for a “soft landing” – the so-called immaculate (pain-free) disinflation that avoids higher rates and recession.

It’s hard to know just how much of this pain-free fall in inflation reflects the trade and post-pandemic shocks that are reversing. Or how much of the job market’s resilience to one of the most rapid tightening of interest rates in history is due to pandemic cash handouts that have insulated consumers from higher debt costs.