NewsBite

Scott Haslem

Yesterday

Why investors should be cautiously optimistic about 2025

Against a backdrop of benevolent macro-drivers, investors may need to confront a new set of forces.

April

Consumer spending may start to turn around from mid-year.

Where to shop for opportunities in the retail sector

Consumer spending may start to turn around from mid-year, throwing up opportunities in retail companies.

March

Inflation continues to surprise. Pre-pandemic it was remarkably low; post-pandemic, it was stubbornly high.

Rates should start dropping within a year even if inflation is sticky

Sticky inflation will potentially keep rates at between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent.

February

With Donald Trump outpolling Joe Biden in surveys, markets are likely soon to turn their attention to pricing the potential impact of a more “isolationist” or “America first” regime emerging in 2025.

Politics and your portfolio (and why it might matter this time)

Elections all over the world mean this is the year when even a constructive backdrop for markets is likely to be challenged by geopolitical changes.

December 2023

By buying small caps, investors are trying to harness the next generation of large-cap companies, thereby beating the index.

This CIO to the rich reckons small caps are the next big thing

Small and mid-cap stocks have potential to grow and therefore add alpha to portfolios.

Advertisement

November 2023

Where to look for opportunities in Australia’s macro-outperformance

Even with its latest downgrade, the IMF expects our growth to average 2 per cent over the next five years, toward the top end of developed market peers.

October 2023

Higher allocation to government bonds ‘still compelling’

Central banks and markets are facing off over bond yields, but policymakers are clearly signalling a peak in interest rates.

September 2023

The cost of labour has risen, with two years of above-average minimum wage increases, a higher superannuation rate and higher payroll taxes in some states.

These are the stocks to back in a less productive jobs market

Likely winners are energy, utilities, building materials and steel companies, but those in transport, food production and engineering won’t fare as well.

August 2023

The three things you need to know about ‘soft-landing’ thesis

Given how resilient the global and local economies have been, negative developments may have a larger impact on investors than consumers.

July 2023

Three reasons to lock in high yields now

In a world of geopolitical and inflation volatility, the opportunity to add regular income yielding 5-7 per cent won’t last forever.

June 2023

Australia is expected to experience slower growth in the second half, influenced by mortgage resets, low consumer sentiment and a likely softer jobs market.

Inflation’s sticky grip: why central banks are coming back for more

Markets are delaying predictions of hoped-for interest rate cuts until early 2024, with more increases ahead if inflation pressures don’t dissipate faster.

May 2023

How the minimum wage decision will affect your portfolio

Increasing wages at the same pace as inflation – without improving efficiency – opens the door to a spiral that would likely need much higher rates to reverse.

April 2023

.

Why the Aussie dollar is holding its own in volatile times

If the Australian dollar is showing signs of greater stability, it may also deliver less downside protection in risk-off periods by not falling as much as in the past.

March 2023

Why this is not a rerun of the global financial crisis

The closure of SVB and Signature Bank, and the sale of Credit Suisse, reflect idiosyncrasies that are not indicative of broad-based global systemic issues.

February 2023

What ‘higher for longer’ would mean for your portfolio

Investors should remain vigilant to the trajectory of corporate earnings and be wary of the lagged impacts of monetary policy.

Advertisement

January 2023

Two other developments have emboldened the “closet” optimists looking for a Goldilocks soft landing for the world economy.

‘Softer landing’ more plausible but far from certain

For markets, despite a likely poor macro backdrop, there’s every chance that a steadier rate environment proves a panacea.

November 2022

For those on a fixed home loan confronting a jumbo reset to higher rates during the second quarter next year, rates are unlikely to be heading south by then.

Rate peak is in sight, but pain will linger

With peak interest rates in sight, a more constructive baseline for markets should unfold as we enter 2023.

September 2022

Uncertainty and volatility should also be catchphrases for focusing on quality and resilience in portfolios.

Uncertainty no excuse to do nothing to your investments

Slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates and persistent volatility leave a laundry list of opportunities.

August 2022

Wages outbreak not as scary as you think

These are the two factors that should keep wages under control.

Three reasons inflation could be lower by next year

If it’s peaking, there are opportunities for investors in fixed-income and long-duration equities, including quality tech stocks.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/by/scott-haslem-p4yvtx