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James Weir

How to win the recession guessing game

There’s a good argument for remaining invested in shares, but retaining an allocation to cash or fixed income as a defensive strategy and to pick up a bargain.

There’s a saying on Wall Street that central banks keep pushing until something breaks. In other words, if central banks want to reduce inflation, they have a tendency to keep raising interest rates until some part of the economy gets into trouble.

Since the middle of last year, economists, strategists and experts of all stripes have been putting forward a bewildering array of seemingly contradictory arguments as to why Australia, the US, Europe and pretty much every economy in the world is either eventually going to fall into recession or somehow narrowly avoid it.

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James Weir is a director of Steward Wealth.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/how-to-win-the-recession-guessing-game-20230628-p5dk5f