This is a recession - we are just not calling it one
The ‘two quarters of GDP decline’ definition has never accurately plotted Australia’s ups and downs. The trick is to err in the right direction in dealing with downturns.
Following the release of the better-than-expected GDP figures last week, which showed that Australia’s economy expanded by 0.7 per cent in the June quarter, it now seems that Australia may avoid a “technical recession” if NSW and Victoria are able to reopen soon enough to rebound in the December quarter, after the inevitable contraction in the current quarter.
The reality is different from the official statistics. Wolter Peeters
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Saul Eslake is former chief economist of ANZ Bank and of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Australia, and is now principal of Corinna Economic Advisory based in Hobart.
