There is only a one in two chance the Reserve Bank of Australia can reduce inflation below 3 per cent without triggering a recession, according to internal research that reveals the central bank has considered the possibility of the cash rate rising to 4.8 per cent.

The RBA released a batch of internal documents under Freedom of Information laws on Thursday, including a staff modelling exercise from September 2022 that concluded the probability of a recession by September 2024 could be as high as 65 to 80 per cent.