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Stephen Anthony

If today was budget day, the picture wouldn't be pretty

A check-up on how the federal budget is tracking reveals a spiralling deficit and debt, and government borrowing could reach 27 per cent of GDP in four years.

Stephen AnthonyEconomist

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Just eight weeks ago, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was within reach of delivering a cash surplus for 2019-20 (the first surplus since 2007-08) and reconfirming modest surpluses over the forward years.

Now eight weeks later, the COVID-19 pandemic has had the budget deferred to October. The government has so far committed to fiscal stimulus totalling $193 billion (10 per cent of GDP) from April through to September 2020.

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Stephen Anthony is chief economist at Macroeconomics.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/if-today-was-budget-day-the-picture-wouldn-t-be-pretty-20200504-p54pio