A recession in the United States would impose large losses on the sharemarket portfolios of Australians but only a modest direct impact on the local economy, which has a successful history of resilience during US downturns.

That’s the view of economists who say the bigger risk facing Australia is the fallout in its No. 1 trade partner, China, from Donald Trump’s threatened trade war with Beijing. China’s indebted economy, dragged down by an ailing property sector, was already slowing before Washington and Beijing imposed tit-for-tat tariffs.