Reserve Bank staff members have had to make some bold forecast assumptions to keep their inflation projections on a path consistent with a 4.35 per cent cash rate.

The recent run of stronger than expected economic data meant the bank’s economists had no choice but to make upward revisions to their employment and inflation forecasts for 2024. But they have treated this as a “mark to market” exercise and have not allowed the changes to flow through to the 2025 and 2026 numbers.