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‘Sticky’ inflation and weak growth are a trap for markets

Some of the country’s top investors say everything from wage rises to strong business activity will make it harder than expected for rates to fall.

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The risk of a prolonged period of high inflation and interest rates with weak growth is being overlooked by buoyant equity markets, setting the scene for nasty surprises if these risks come home to roost, some of the country’s top investors say.

James Aitken, an advisor to some of the world’s largest asset managers, said it was hard to imagine the Reserve Bank could tame Australia’s near 7 per cent inflation with a peak real cash rate of “minus 300 basis points” when historically it had taken “peak real policy rates” to bring inflation back down to the central bank target bands.

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Ben Potter writes on energy, climate change and innovation, and has been Washington correspondent, opinion editor and companies editor. Connect with Ben on Twitter. Email Ben at bpotter@afr.com
Cecile Lefort is a markets reporter based in the Sydney newsroom. Email Cecile at cecile.lefort@afr.com

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/buoyant-market-overlooking-inflation-weak-economic-growth-risks-20230427-p5d3ls