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Why the chances of a recession are in the hands of central banks

The inverted yield curve has many market watchers expecting the worst but a slower path to getting inflation under control is key.

Scott Haslem
Scott HaslemContributor

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A hush has come over financial markets as the infamous yield curve has flattened and inverted. This is when the longer-dated interest rate (usually the 10-year bond yield) falls below the shorter-term rate (often the two-year yield), signalling that the market thinks a significant slowing in growth (and typically a recession) lies ahead. An equity bear market is often involved.

But that hush is only mirrored by the cacophony of outlook concerns that arguably should be demanding our attention. Central banks are gearing up to lift rates, real wage growth is negative, consumer confidence has waned, company profit growth is decelerating, there is a war in Ukraine and oil prices have spiked.

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Scott Haslem is chief investment officer at LGT Crestone.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p5ac3f