Chanticleer

The soft landing isn’t dead. But investors shouldn’t count on it

Bulls hoping for rate cuts and bears who see more rises ahead shouldn’t rule out the possibility that central banks can slowly cool inflation without smashing employment.

May 11, 2023 – 3.18pm

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James Montier, senior investment strategist and partner at Boston-based fund manager GMO, says the holding pattern the market has been in for the past two months – not up, not down, mainly sideways – creates a danger that investors might be swallowed by their biases.

If you’re bearish, you’ll find the data that supports your view. If you’re bullish, you’ll do the same. The danger, Montier says, lies in ignoring alternative views – and failing to build a portfolio robust enough to hold up even if your view is wrong.

James Thomson is senior Chanticleer columnist based in Melbourne. He was the Companies editor and editor of BRW Magazine.