Macquarie strategist Viktor Shvets has been a voice of reason for those fearing the return of Donald Trump could plunge the global economic and financial markets into chaos. His argument? A series of guardrails – from Congress to the US legal system, to bilateral trade agreements – would prevent the worst from happening.

But after the US president followed through on his threat to whack Canada and Mexico with a 25 per cent tariff, and a 10 per cent tariff on China, Shvets is being forced into a rapid rethink, just a few weeks into Trump’s second presidency.