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Economists give up on rate cuts. Investors and borrowers can too

Impossibly wedged between predicting the future and giving traders something to discuss, nobody wants to hear from the experts that the RBA is standing still. The reality is that when the central bank is sitting on its hands, it tends to keep sitting.

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Economist calls for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the cash rate early next year are dropping like flies. Even the ones left in the February 2025 camp are warning their calls may be too early (again).

RBC Capital Markets’ Su-Lin Ong pushed her rate cut forecasts back to May from February over the weekend. NAB did it last week, while UBS’ George Tharenou capitulated on November 5. ANZ and Citi’s economics teams stuck with February but warned the risks of delay were rising as of last week. HSBC, already aiming for “second quarter”, worried the RBA may be unable to cut rates at all.

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Anthony Macdonald is a Chanticleer columnist. He is a former Street Talk co-editor and has 10 years' experience as a business journalist and worked at PwC, auditing and advising financial services companies. Connect with Anthony on Twitter. Email Anthony at a.macdonald@afr.com

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/economists-give-up-on-rate-cuts-investors-and-borrowers-can-too-20241117-p5krac