July 2022
The NAIF is no longer an abject failure
The Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility has come a long way in the past three years. The Albanese government can do more to underwrite its success.
Prepare for a deep freeze in crypto
These are dangerous times in crypto. Beyond the epic drawdown lies a toxic mess of hubris, internecine conflict and highly complex cross-jurisdictional litigation.
June 2022
Reserve Bank’s plunge into negative equity
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s dive will have to be reckoned with, both in Martin Place and in Canberra.
Australian venture capital faces a reality check
Local players are yet to concede a “super bad feeling”. But it is a matter of time, particularly given the proximity of financial year end, when scrutiny is at its highest.
May 2022
Two parties are no longer preferred
The federal election has left Australia without a functional opposition, giving the ALP a vast opportunity, as well as great responsibility.
The teal zeal is real
A minority government is more likely than not. The political implications will be more far-reaching than the economic.
April 2022
The sun is set to rise over East Timor
If Australia does not support East Timor in developing the Greater Sunrise gas field, after the diplomatic mishandling of a security pact with Solomon Islands, China will.
March 2022
The West is dumping Chinese government bonds
The abrupt reversal of foreign inflows to China’s bond market is a deeply concerning development, and warrants the closest of scrutiny.
A perfect storm awaits big super
The Australian dollar is exposed to dramatic upside risk as geopolitics and the rise of big super collide.
February 2022
Why Europe must wean itself off Russian gas
Europe’s dependency on Russia’s gas is acute. The Ukrainian war will change that, but it will take many years.
Quantitative tightening may go active, on both sides of the Tasman
Quantitative tightening has two variants – passive and active – and the RBA and RBNZ should be considering both as policy options.
January 2022
Putin is many things, but he is not irrational
Vladimir Putin is ruthless, a nationalist and an autocrat. But he is also a master tactician and strategist, writes Grant Wilson.
Year of the Tiger shapes as crucial one for China
A likely third term for Xi Jinping, the showcasing of the E-yuan and the future of the COVID-Zero strategy will all be important over the next 12 months.
December 2021
Big super’s offshore equities plunge is risky
Over the past five quarters, Australian investors have embarked on an unprecedented buying binge in global equities. The risks involved are increasing, and not well understood.
November 2021
Omicron will cast a lasting pall over financial markets
The omicron variant poses an immediate and downside risk to consensus expectations for growth, inflation and earnings.
Central banks enter dangerous new territory
A global surge in inflation is exceeding central bank targets in many countries, at a time when unconventional monetary policies are still being pursued in scale.
October 2021
Why the Reserve Bank may need to be recapitalised
The central bank does not have sufficient capital if it is to increase rates any time soon.
The Coalition is safeguarding emissions
The safeguard mechanism is the means by which the Coalition is frustrating Australia’s transition to net zero. It is not fit for purpose.
China is facing a coal shock
China is facing a coal shock. This is bad news for the global economy, and good news for the global transition to net zero emissions.
September 2021
Snubbing China on trade is a strategic mistake
Comments on Friday by Trade Minister Dan Tehan regarding China’s accession to the Indo-Pacific region trade group were a serious fumble.