Jim Chalmers ready for ‘Battle of the Burbs’ budget on March 25

The Treasurer and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher are ready to hand down a pre-election budget in 18 days, as Anthony Albanese rules out an April election as a result of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Jim Chalmers at the Logan metro sports centre in Creastmead on Friday. Picture: Annette Dew

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Jim Chalmers’ fourth budget is being framed around Labor’s “Battle of the Burbs” re-election campaign, with major funding decisions already finalised and focused on providing cost-of-living support for households and small business, lowering debt and investing in growth.

Anthony Albanese on Friday night ruled out an April election as a result of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, and said he was proceeding with a March 25 budget which was “always my intention.”

Despite ALP campaign headquarters being activated this week and internal expectations the Prime Minister would call an April 12 election by Monday, expenditure review committee (ERC) members will now execute the contingency plan, and sign off on key decisions.

The Australian can reveal the Treasurer and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher are ready to hand down the pre-election budget in 18 days, with government insiders bracing for a flurry of meetings of cabinet’s ERC over the coming fortnight.

A growing number of Labor MPs had privately backed a May poll to sharpen attacks on Peter Dutton and ensure the clean-up after Cyclone Alfred is completed.

Although the Prime Minister can still call an election for April 12 by 6pm on Monday, he ruled out such a move on Friday night and said his sole focus was the cyclone.

“I have no intention of doing anything that distracts from what we need to do,” Mr Albanese told the ABC.

“This is not a time for looking at politics. My sole focus is not calling an election. My sole focus is on the needs of Australians. That is my sole focus.

“I have very clearly said … that we’d produce a budget on March 25 and that certainly is my clear intention, and it has been.”

The ERC is expected to meet early next week to discuss emergency funding measures once Tropical Cyclone Alfred makes landfall and the significant rain event dissipates.

Treasury officials will need to wait until closer to the budget to finalise economic forecasts based on a range of indicators.

Anthony Albanese in the National Situation Room (NEMA) in Canberra. Picture: Martin Ollman

In a John Curtin Research Centre podcast released on Wednesday, Dr Chalmers said the election would be “won or lost” in the outer suburbs.

“This election will be a battle of the burbs. You mention Melbourne and Sydney, this will be won or lost in the outer suburbs. We’ve tried to maintain this focus on the cost of living while the other guys have tried to drag us into culture wars and conflict,” Dr Chalmers said.

“It will be a battle of the burbs and that means (the election) will be about the economy. I hope it is. I’m spoiling for a fight on the economy. Nothing would make me happier than if this election was contested on the economy.”

With Mr Albanese and Dr Chalmers seeking to sharpen Labor’s economic narrative on the back of an interest rate cut, lower inflation and a slight uptick in GDP growth, the budget presents the ALP with an opportunity to amplify already announced policies, including the record $8.5bn Medicare funding pledge, and hone the government’s re-election pitch.

Some in Labor ranks would like Dr Chalmers to embark on “big bang” reforms to woo voters, but The Australian understands the budget will not be “flashy” but rather “solid and workmanlike”.

The budget narrative will focus on acknowledging that the inflation fight is not over and provide cost-of-living support for more Australians doing it tough in the suburbs.

The pre-election budget would also invest in growth and prop up Mr Albanese’s Future Made in Australia vision.

The third plank will be improving budget savings and lowering debt.

Despite predictions of dramatically higher tax takes and lower deficits, The Australian understands that projected deficits will likely be lower than the mid-year budget update in December but not substantially.

Jim Chalmers at the Logan metro sports centre in Creastmead. Picture: Annette Dew

As Labor officials were getting ready for an election call by the end of this weekend, the Prime Minister on Friday was forced to put down claims by ALP national president Wayne Swan that the cyclone’s impact on Brisbane may not be as bad as feared.

The comments had effectively left open the possibility of Mr Albanese calling an April 12 election by the Monday 6pm (AEDT) deadline.

The debate over election timing came as new economic forecasts revealed Labor’s budget deficit was on track to be $11bn below treasury forecasts on the back of a tax take estimated to be $12bn higher than projected.

Economist Chris Richardson is projecting smaller underlying and headline deficits of $16bn and $37bn in 2024-25 but warned “the luck won’t last … it’s the equivalent of a huge but one-off lottery win”.

Ahead of the dangerous weather system making landfall on Saturday morning, Labor MPs said they would be “utterly amazed” if the Prime Minister called an election for April given the optics of doing so while Queenslanders assessed the damage.

“I think it’s too much and as soon as you give up on April 12, the rest of April is out the window because of school holidays and so on,” one MP said.

“If you call it now and there’s a lot of damage, you’re going to be seen to be out of touch,” another Labor figure added.

“I don’t think (Mr Albanese) has got much choice, really, because there’s very few dates available because of Anzac Day, school holidays and Easter. And, well, he always said he wanted to go full term.”

When asked on Friday if the government could still get money to disaster-affected communities once writs were issued, Mr Albanese said “governments can continue” in such a situation.

“But I’m not concerned about that; what we’re concerned about is responding here,” he said.

Mr Swan, who is the chair of Cbus, said if he were in Mr Albanese’s position he would wait and “see what happens with the cyclone” before making the election call, as he claimed the cyclone may no longer be a threat to Brisbane.

“It could strengthen, although the forecasts this morning are suggesting that it’s weakening, so we’ve just got to see what the weather does,” he told Nine’s Today.

“I note that it’s changed course and is heading north now, so maybe the immediate threat to Brisbane is no longer there.”

Former treasurer Wayne Swan. Picture: Tim Hunter

The former Labor treasurer’s claim was dismissed shortly after by the Bureau of Meteorology, which warned Brisbane could suffer from massive rainfall, and by Mr Albanese.

“Look, this is a serious event. What we need to do is hope for the best but prepare for the worst. We absolutely need to prepare for the worst,” Mr Albanese said when asked about Mr Swan’s comments.

“This is already having an impact. And the impact with the slowing of the Cyclone Alfred in its journey westward to the coast, we should not think that slower means better. It’s not clear that it could intensify as well as it is over warmer waters. It has the potential to increase the intensity of it.”

While two Labor MPs said they would be concerned if the election were called for May, out of fear such timing would draw out constituents’ anxieties and frustrations following the cost-of-living crisis, the other five Labor figures who spoke to The Australian said waiting for a few weeks before setting an election date would give the party an advantage.

Those in favour of a May election were buoyed by a recent uptick in the economy, tightening polls over the past week favouring the incumbent, and a string of attacks on Mr Dutton that MPs believed were beginning to land.

The Coalition leader has faced scrutiny over his property and share portfolio, as well as a decision this week to leave his electorate on the eve of Cyclone Alfred in favour of a Sydney fundraiser.

“A lot of damage has been done for (Mr) Dutton to recover from,” one senior Labor figure said. “There are now character questions coming up and character is everything.”

A Labor MP said: “if (Mr Dutton) is losing bark along the way, why rush to (an election)?”

Acting Opposition Leader Sussan Ley defended Mr Dutton, pointing out Mr Albanese had left the region in recent days and that Labor had circulated invitations to a budget fundraiser on Friday.

“No one can doubt Peter Dutton’s commitment to his electorate,” she said on ABC.

“I won’t get into the mud-slinging … This is a time we should be focusing on the safety of Queenslanders, doing everything we can to back them in.”