The timing of the federal election could very shortly be taken out of Anthony Albanese’s hands.
If as predicted by meteorologists, an act of God may now decide this for him.
At about 4am on Friday, the epicentre of a category 2 cyclone is expected to rip through southeast Queensland and northern NSW.
A closer examination of the Bureau of Meteorology’s map shows it cutting a path through Peter Dutton’s electorate of Dickson and LNP MP Luke Howarth’s electorate of Petrie as it goes.
The Opposition Leader is currently on his property, locking it down before Cyclone Alfred hits.
If it ends up being anything like experts are warning, it would be a bold move by the Prime Minister to be calling an election this coming Sunday – as all signs indicate he is prepped for – and particularly if the Opposition Leader is stuck on his farm.
Just what the national disaster threshold is for calling an election in its wake is unclear.
But once again the federal Labor government may fall hostage to events.
The nation ought to be praying the worst doesn’t eventuate. But if it does, Albanese will need to put some serious consideration to delaying it if indeed his plan was to drop in at Government House by Monday.
On Tuesday, as news of the cyclone’s trajectory became clearer, there was a view among plenty of Labor insiders that he’d be mad to call an election this weekend if a natural disaster unfolds, whatever the level of damage it may or may not cause.
Others, however, were trying to argue that the Prime Minister could still call the election but then immediately suspend the campaign for a week.
What would be the point of that? Not only would it look tricky, there would be absolutely no justification for it, considering an election doesn’t have to be held until mid-May.
Either way, some furious thought is going into contingency planning in the Labor camp to prepare for the worst. And on the Liberal side as well.
One senior Labor source suggested “it would be a very bad look” to call an election if people are flooded out of their homes in the second-most populous region of the country.
Having engaged its own juvenile form of PSYOPS for the past month on when the election might be called, nature could now dictate terms.
And that means a budget and election delayed until May, which of course is full term.
While this always remained a possibility, April 12 had firmed as the most likely date ahead of Easter and the Anzac Day weekend – with the country on an extended break ruling those weekends out.
To get to April 12, Albanese would have to call the election either on Sunday or Monday by 6pm. This is now, literally, up in the air.
If April 12 is out because of the cyclone, Albanese could always avoid a budget by just having a six-week campaign to a May 3 election. But again, this would look tricky and a deliberate action to avoid a budget.
Labor campaign director Paul Erickson would doubtless be nimble enough to have a plan B ready to go. The question is whether Albanese is.
It is hard to gauge which side would benefit from a delayed start date considering voters’ antipathy to both. In the end it probably doesn’t make much difference.
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