Brisbane braces for direct hit from Tropical Cyclone Alfred, 20,000 homes at risk
Looming storm surges have intensified the danger for millions in the path of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, now on track to strike Brisbane, but a disaster warning text messaging system is missing in action.
Looming storm surges have intensified the danger for millions in the path of Cyclone Alfred, now on track to strike Brisbane and potentially drive a wall of sea water into low-lying suburbs.
The category 2 system, packing winds up to 150km/h and torrential rain, is predicted to slam into the city’s northern suburbs overnight Thursday.
The cyclone was about 465km east of Brisbane and 430km east of the Gold Coast as of Wednesday morning, moving west at 11km/h after it made a U-turn about 600km off Brisbane on Tuesday night.
It is expected to make landfall between the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast late Thursday or early Friday, with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting the cyclone will maintain its category two intensity as it approaches the coast.
The Bureau of Meteorology declared a warning zone between Double Island Point in Queensland to Grafton in NSW, which includes Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay and Ballina but not including Grafton.
A watch zone was also issued for Sandy Cape to Double Island Point in Queensland, including K’Gari.
Premier David Crisafulli warned that Alfred’s landfall would coincide with one of the year’s highest ocean tides and swell the anticipated storm surges, threatening lives and sowing chaos in the dead of night. Waves up to 7m had been recorded offshore, he said
Local council modelling showed that 20,000 homes were at risk of being inundated in Brisbane and 6000 on the Gold Coast. “There is no doubt that there is a potential impact that comes with storm surges,” Mr Crisafulli said. “Ultimately the severity of the system, when it crosses and where it crosses, are all really important factors. The modelling that councils are doing at the moment is factoring a storm surge over and above what the modelling is.”
Police on Tuesday were going door to door in island communities off Brisbane, urging householders to leave before it was too late. Mandatory evacuations could be ordered by councils as the cyclone continued to advance, the emergency services said.
Anthony Albanese was flying to Brisbane overnight to be on hand for the preparations, the Prime Minister’s office confirmed. But a federal government disaster warning text messaging system, supposed to be operational last year, was missing in action, not yet ready to be deployed for the cyclone emergency.
The state-of-the-art technology was touted as being able to “take over” mobile phone screens and deliver instant alerts and warnings – both in English and a second language – to all devices in a specific area, regardless of the phone service provider. In May 2023, Communications Minister Michelle Rowland announced $10m in funding to establish the NMS, saying in a statement it would “be operational by 2024”.
A spokesperson for Emergency Management Minister Jenny McAllister confirmed, however, that the new system was not operational. Instead, Senator McAllister’s spokesperson said authorities would have to rely on the federal-owned, state-run “Emergency Alert” system.
That system was used during the 2022 floods in southeast Queensland and northern NSW, and was found to take up to 12 hours to gradually send out alerts to mobile phones in designated areas.
As nearly 4.5 million people battened down across an impact zone reaching 250km from the Sunshine Coast north of Brisbane to Byron Bay in northern NSW, Mr Crisafulli said all of southeast Queensland was in the firing line.
King tides are forecast for 2am Friday, about the time the eye of the cyclone is set to cross the coast at Redcliffe in Brisbane’s north.
The Bureau of Meteorology said the storm surge would add up to 0.7m to the high tides, putting low-lying areas at risk of inundation. Waves up to 3m generated by the cyclone would compound the threat to lives and property.
“We’re going to see that high tide up to half a metre higher than it would normally sit,” senior forecaster Dean Narramore said.
“And then you’re going to add the waves on top of that.”
Brisbane City Council said residents of 20,000 homes at risk of storm surges or flooding should consider relocating. The most threatened suburbs were named as Nudgee Beach, Brighton, Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside and Rocklea.
Acting Gold Coast mayor Donna Gates said more than 6000 properties could be inundated if a “worst-case scenario” storm surge of 70cm eventuated. The suburbs of Surfers Paradise, Paradise Point and Elanora were likely to be worst-affected.
On the Sunshine Coast, dozens of towns, from Noosa to Caloundra, are under threat. Modelling predicts a 50cm storm surge on top of Caloundra’s high tide of 1.61m at 2.10am on Friday.
Not since category 1 Cyclone Dora in 1971 has the nation’s third-largest city been faced with a direct hit from a cyclone. The Great Gold Coast Cyclone in 1954 killed up to 30 people and devastated the beach strip.
Residents are taking the threat seriously. Brisbane council gave out 74,000 sandbags on Monday, exceeding the total distributed during the 2022 flooding of Brisbane. More than 40,000 were distributed on the Sunshine Coast.
The AFL called off the season-opening clash between premier Brisbane and Geelong at the Gabba on Thursday night, and the Gold Coast-Essendon game.
The NRL match between the Dolphins and Rabbitohs, due to be played at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night, has been moved to Sydney’s CommBank Stadium.
A tour-closing concert on the Gold Coast with US pop-punk band Green Day was also cancelled. “With Cyclone Alfred bringing some seriously nasty weather, it’s just not possible to go ahead safely,” the band posted.
The Australian understands the speaker of state parliament, Pat Weir, and manager of government business Christian Rowan are quietly warning regional MPs that a scheduled sitting next week might be postponed due.
Additional reporting: Sarah Elks, Elodie Jakes.
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