The unlucky PM caught between a cyclone and election

The PM’s hopes of calling an April 12 election are being eroded by the cyclone that was supposed to bear his name.

Illustration: Johannes Leak

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Anthony Albanese’s hopes of calling an April 12 election are being eroded by the slow-moving beast of a cyclone that was supposed to bear his name.

Without diminishing the severity of the weather event off southeast Queensland, the rare emergence of an autumn cyclone continues Albanese’s run of misfortune since the 2023 Indigenous voice referendum.

Politicians are used to storm clouds hanging overhead but Albanese could never have imagined a cyclone tearing up Labor’s long-held election game plan.

The first cyclone in generations to directly hit Brisbane, the Gold Coast and northern NSW, which was slated to be called “Anthony” before the Bureau of Meteorology intervened, could force the Prime Minister to delay election planning and send staff home from Labor’s campaign HQ. The coming days will determine whether the March 25 budget proceeds and voters are forced to endure another two months of Labor’s pseudo campaign.

For all of Albanese’s indignation about election timing questions and whether the cyclone impacts his plans, the Prime Minister has personally fuelled speculation over many months.

The 62-year-old claims he wants fixed four-year terms but knows he will never touch a referendum again.

He has suggested a full-term May election, that an election might be called earlier, and even floated the ultimate red herring of a half-Senate election followed by a House of Representatives election in September.

Albanese, who is desperate to catch Peter Dutton on the hop, has a 10-week window until the election has to be called by May 17. That narrow window is complicated by Easter, Anzac Day and school holidays. If Cyclone Alfred wreaks havoc, Albanese is expected to wait until May and hold the pre-election budget.

Dutton has ramped up pressure by declaring the Prime Minister would have a “tin ear” if he calls the election on Sunday or Monday.

Far from the dream sequence cyclone that swept Dorothy and Toto into the Land of Oz, Albanese will spend the coming days in The Lodge hoping Cyclone Alfred weakens and doesn’t inflict extreme chaos and damage.

Unlike the gold-plated, taxpayer-funded yellow brick road Labor has been building since January, or ALP efforts to frame Dutton as the wicked witch of Queensland, Albanese can’t slip on magical slippers, close his eyes and repeat “there’s no place like home (or The Lodge)”.

While Labor strategists believe they have made up ground in the past week, Albanese must execute a near perfect campaign to become the first PM since John Howard in 1998 to win a second term. A strong campaign is still likely to deliver Labor a fraught minority government, and Albanese will come under internal pressure for not calling the election sooner.

Other external factors outside Albanese’s control are the actions of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Albanese is yet to win tariff exemptions from Trump, with Australian aluminium and steel due to be hit from next Wednesday. The Labor leader’s suggestion he would be open to Australian boots on the ground in Ukraine will likely be noticed by US officials, days after Trump’s evisceration of Volodymyr Zelensky.

Xi is also flexing in the region, with Chinese warships completing their circumnavigation of Australia after conducting provocative live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea.

Albanese, who on Thursday moved ahead of Kevin Rudd on the list of longest-serving PMs, now has an opportunity to lead the nation through choppy geostrategic waters and natural disasters.

Once the cyclone dissipates and airports reopen, Albanese will be back on the ground in Brisbane and northern NSW to support the clean-up and seek to prove to voters he is up to the hardest job in the nation.