Landmines everywhere for Dutton as MPs urge policy fight

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Picture: Annette Dew

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Peter Dutton is facing internal pressure to pivot quickly after Anthony Albanese’s decision to ditch an April 12 election and hold a budget, with Coalition MPs desperate to speak about substantive policies they can sell to disillusioned voters.

Dutton, who is ahead in the polls and up against an unpopular Prime Minister, is now repositioning and tweaking the Coalition campaign strategy to factor in a March 25 budget that even Labor ministers and MPs assumed wouldn’t proceed.

Since the October 2023 Indigenous voice referendum, Dutton has dominated Albanese most weeks. In fact, Albanese’s poor performance and his government’s bungles have been the Coalition’s greatest asset.

After 17 months of Dutton ruthlessly seizing on Labor-fuelled scandals and mishaps, the rubber is now hitting the road for a Coalition that must expertly land its final push to win and hold battleground seats that would deliver a historic victory.

A central fear of Coalition MPs and party elders is that without an urgent contest of ideas, Labor will do what it does best, which is ratchet-up personal attacks and scare campaigns targeting Dutton.

After some improvement in polling for Albanese last week and with Tropical Cyclone Alfred dominating the news cycle, Labor executed another hit job on Dutton over a Liberal Party fundraiser in Sydney (hoping voters didn’t remember Albanese’s own poorly timed fundraisers). The attack followed others focused on Dutton’s historic share and property portfolios.

Labor’s muckraking is a clear indication it is struggling to sell tens of billions of dollars in policies rolled out since January. When Albanese buckled under pressure and announced he would stall plans for an April election and instead head to the polls in May, Dutton was described by some Coalition insiders as appearing flat-footed. In Dutton’s defence, Albanese holds the cards in shifting the goalposts.

“Dutton has carried the show for a long time now. He is juggling a lot and being urged to now press the button on policy to prove to voters the Coalition has an alternative plan. Nuclear was great but we’ve got to go harder now and sell the vision,” a Coalition insider said.

While ALP and Coalition campaign headquarters in Sydney remain manned, both sides are now scrambling to shift announcements and prepare for the budget and budget reply.

Senior Coalition frontbenchers say they welcome the extra time to prepare and land blows on Albanese and confirmed they would treat budget week as the start of the election campaign.

With the budget only 13 days away, the Coalition is expected to begin its rollout of major policies when Dutton delivers his budget reply on March 27.

“The work has been done. We are ready to go,” a senior Liberal source said.

After Dutton opposed much of Labor’s spending on the grounds it would drive up inflation and put households under pressure, Jim Chalmers will seek to wedge the Opposition Leader by rolling out new cost-of-living measures including extending the energy bill relief package.

Coalition backbenchers believe Dutton must be pragmatic and not get bogged down in budget fights over cost-of-living measures at a time when Australians overwhelmingly support more relief for households. They are also concerned about inconsistencies on Coalition policy positions including breaking up insurance companies, which has allowed Labor to frame the opposition as divided. With the Climate 200-backed Teals and minor parties seeking to weaponise antipathy towards the major parties, Coalition MPs feel it is time to transition from political rhetoric wars to a substantive policy fight.

As it stands, Dutton remains better placed than Albanese to form a minority government. In addition to claiming the new West Australian seat of Bullwinkel, the Coalition is expected to win Labor seats in Victoria and NSW including Chisholm, Aston, McEwen, Paterson, Gilmore and Robertson.

The Dutton pathway to victory is predicated on securing big swings in Labor and independent seats, while fending off challenges in Coalition territory. To finish ahead of Labor, the Coalition will need to win seats like Lyons, Tangney, Curtin, Calare, Moore, Monash, Goldstein, Boothby, Solomon, Parramatta, Dobell, Werriwa, Reid, Eden-Monaro, Blair, Hasluck and Hunter.

Coalition sources say political rhetoric and reliance on Albanese’s mistakes won’t be enough to swing the tough seats required to reclaim power.