Hung parliament fear fuels business and union campaign warchests
Voters in key election seats will be targeted in one of Australia’s biggest third-party campaigns, with industry groups, activists, unions and individuals finalising multimillion-dollar warchests.
The election contest between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton will be fought against the backdrop of one of Australia’s biggest third-party campaigns, with industry groups, activists, unions and individuals finalising multimillion-dollar warchests to influence swing voters.
New real-time data developments and enhanced geo-targeting advertising will allow political, business, union, activist and other campaign machines to specifically aim and adapt messaging to several thousand voters living near battleground booths in key electorates.
Amid expectations of an early election and no budget on March 25, hundreds of chief executives, lobbyists, industry heads and political strategists are descending on Canberra this week for what most believe will be the final parliamentary sitting fortnight before polling day.
With opinion polls indicating a tight election and potential hung parliament, business, construction, mining, police and other industry representatives are preparing separate campaign blitzes advocating their interests and pushing the major parties to adopt their policies.
A delegation of 30 Business Council of Australia member chief executives, including Geoff Culbert (BCA president), Rob Scott (Wesfarmers), Mel Silva (Google Australia), Kellie Parker (Rio Tinto), Guy Chalkley (Endeavour Energy) and Danny Gilbert (Gilbert+Tobin), will meet with Jim Chalmers, opposition Treasury spokesman Angus Taylor and independent MPs and senators in parliament this week to discuss the BCA’s election platform, released on Tuesday.
The Australian can reveal the Master Builders Australia, which ran a ruthlessly effective campaign on negative gearing and the CFMEU at the 2019 election, has compiled a seat-by-seat database drilling down into Statistical Area 2 data that helps narrow electorate-wide advertising and messaging.
MBA, which represents the $200bn building and construction sector and boasts 32,000 members, has broken down numbers per electorate for construction workers, businesses and apprentices, performance under the National Housing Accord, building approvals and how many taxpayers are using negative gearing.
The construction industry campaign will focus its robocalls and social media, digital, in-game, radio, television and print advertising campaign primarily in 42 marginal and battleground seats held by Labor (26), the Coalition (9), teal independents (3), the Greens (2) and independents (1). It also includes the new West Australian seat of Bullwinkel.
With construction firms plunging into insolvency and under pressure to deliver the Albanese government’s 1.2 million new homes target, the MBA will retrofit its campaigns for different electorates across the country.
The MBA campaign comes as Labor and the Coalition clash over policies to reverse the housing crisis, crippling construction workforce shortages, high costs, housing supply shortages and project delays.
MBA chief executive Denita Wawn said compared to the 2019 election where they targeted postcodes within electorates, campaigners could now execute strategies “in real time with much more depth of knowledge” aimed at voters “around polling booths that matter”.
“This year we are looking at drilling down to SA2 level, which enables us to be even more targeted than we have in the past to get the best bang for our buck,” she said. “Our (data house platform) enables us to get a clear indication of what’s happening in an electorate in real time. It will be immediately updated with new data as it becomes available.
“Regardless of whether you cut it by numbers of workers in the industry, numbers of businesses in the industry, they all seem to come up as the key battleground seats.”
The campaign, which is expected to cost about $500,000, will focus on the housing crisis and pressures facing builders but could be quickly adapted in the event a contentious issue like negative gearing emerges.
“At this stage, given both parties have ruled out negative gearing, we’re not running an ad campaign on negative gearing. But we will intend to if there are any concerns that come up between now and election day,” she said.
Despite telling The Australian on Monday that he won’t be “campaigning or doing anything at the election … I’m not in politics, I’m retired”, billionaire Clive Palmer in January launched an advertising blitz focused on the cost-of-living and housing crises, while promoting a MAGA cap on social media with the phrase “Make Albo Go Away”.
The United Australia Party founder, who will ramp-up campaigning on the housing crisis in coming weeks, is awaiting an imminent High Court ruling on whether he can re-register UAP, which he deregistered in 2022.
Mr Palmer, who ran candidates nationwide and spent $100m ahead of the last election, won a sole Victorian Senate spot with Ralph Babet. Regardless of the High Court decision, the former federal MP is expected to run ads attacking Mr Albanese and Labor.
Key seats to feature prominently in MBA data for construction workers, apprentices and businesses include Casey, McEwen, Hawke, Reid, Mackellar, Eden-Monaro and Cowan.
The largest share of voters in key seats using negative gearing are Greenway (11.6%), Chisholm (10.5%), and Bennelong (10%). Battleground seats with the worst performance so far under the Housing Accord are Solomon (86.1% behind target), Flynn (80.2% behind target) and Dunkley (75.9% behind target).
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