Two conflicting views now dominate the political landscape.
Both point to a complete decay of faith in the competence and vision of both major parties.
An overwhelming majority of voters don’t believe Labor deserves to be re-elected but many have serious doubts about the Coalition’s readiness to govern. This simple equation rationalises the poor primary vote performance of both.
The overwhelming message from electors since Christmas is that the government is in all sorts of trouble but the Coalition isn’t going to sleepwalk into power.
Anthony Albanese may have seen an uptick in his approval ratings in the latest Newspoll but this is coming from a very low base. And while Labor’s primary vote showed signs of feebly trying to follow, so too did the Coalition’s primary vote lift.
Considering this is the first Newspoll since last month’s interest rate cut, one can only conclude that it did little to enthuse mortgage holders.
Yet neither side is in a position to form majority government on these numbers at present. The one-point lift in primary vote support for both is not only well within the margin of error, it is within the narrow band that has punctuated the contest this year. Labor has drifted between 31 per cent and 32 per cent, while the Coalition has done the same between 38 per cent and 39 per cent.
Nothing has really changed from the start of the year and there is no threat yet of either side overcoming the general state of electoral discontent.
While Labor won an election with 32.6 per cent of the primary vote in May 2022, it won’t be able to do it again. Largely because the Coalition back then wasn’t fairing much better with just 35.7 per cent.
Yet the Coalition would not be able to win enough seats on 39 per cent primary vote to get it over the line either.
Labor’s primary vote is a reflection of the disaffection it has generated over the term.
Ambivalence, however, punctuates the attitude toward the Coalition.
This explains why Dutton hasn’t been able to lift the primary vote above 40 per cent at any time during his leadership.
While Dutton has to a large degree restored the base of the Liberal Party after its crushing defeat, he has been unable to carve out any ground in the middle.
The latest Newspoll illuminates why this may be the case.
Among younger voters, 63 per cent had no confidence that the Coalition was ready to govern.
This is hardly surprising. It reflects strongly a party political bias among 18 to
34-year-olds.
Dutton’s problem is that 35 to 49-year-olds think the same way.
The surprise result is that 61 per cent of this group are also doubtful whether Dutton is ready.
And this is where the conflict lies. In middle Australia, there is a deeply held view that the Albanese government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected, as Newspoll has shown previously.
However, there is also a view that the Liberal/Nationals are not ready to return to power after a single term in opposition.
It is a view that also has a strong gender bias with women far less confident in the Coalition’s preparedness to run the country again just yet.
Considering the strength, or lack of it, of the Coalition frontbench, this may not all be just down to Dutton personally.
But it explains why there appears to be a natural ceiling of 38-40 per cent primary vote for the Liberal/Nationals.
The two-party-preferred vote of 51-49 represents a 3 per swing against Labor – or about eight seats. It would be enough to knock Labor out of majority government but then it becomes a coin toss as to which side can limp toward minority government.
And whoever forms government on these numbers probably isn’t going to form the following one unless there is a hidden brilliance that the rest of the country is unaware of.
In the end it won’t be voters who are to blame if a hung parliament is the result.
For this, both Albanese and Dutton can’t take a bow.
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