After Cyclone Alfred caused Albanese to blink and shelve long-held plans for an April 12 election, the Prime Minister, Treasurer and Finance Minister have less than 15 days to turn around the March 25 budget.
Speaking in Lismore as he completes a whirlwind disaster tour through southeast Queensland and northern NSW, and channelling John Howard in a Cricket Australia jacket, Albanese said cabinet’s expenditure review committee “concluded all of our portfolio budget submissions a couple of weeks ago”.
Albanese, who will convene a full cabinet meeting in Canberra on Tuesday, will now use the budget as a launching pad for his re-election campaign, which Chalmers has dubbed the “Battle of the Burbs”.
Labor sources say government ministers had not approached pre-budget meetings with the same rigour as Chalmers’ first three, with some considering the odds of holding a budget to be on par with the Parramatta Eels or West Coast Eagles winning NRL and AFL premierships.
Treasury watchers observe that given all ministers have lodged their budget submissions, Albanese, Chalmers and Gallagher will use the hunting licence process to finish budget preparations and finalise additional elements. A hunting licence is a budget term describing when a government’s ERC “delegates a decision to a minister”. The process has been used before, allowing a prime minister and treasurer to tie-up loose ends quickly.
Canberra bureaucrats, many of whom were also under the impression the budget wouldn’t proceed, are scrambling to have the budget ready. Treasury officials will not finalise its forecasts until as close to March 25 as possible.
Given Albanese has already unveiled tens of billions of dollars in election announcements, the budget provides a final opportunity for Chalmers to pump top-up funds into priority Labor areas, including cost of living, housing, social security, clean energy, health, defence and national security.
Labor knows it must use its final weeks and the budget to hone the government’s major political and economic sells.
Pressure points include Labor falling behind on its promise to build 1.2 million homes by mid-2029 and the slow rollout of social and affordable housing under the $10bn Housing Australia Future Fund. While the Reserve Bank last month delivered its first rate cut since 2020, the property market remains volatile amid concerns over certainty moving forward. Labor’s energy relief plan has never really cut through, and the government’s $8.5bn Medicare investment was immediately matched by Peter Dutton. On defence and national security, both Labor and the Coalition are under pressure to dramatically lift investments.
With the budget countdown clock starting last Friday, expect the Prime Minister’s cabal to be shrewd, hyperpolitical and calculated as the three put the finishing touches on an economic blueprint they hope will anchor a Labor election victory.
Newspoll: Parties backed on cash splurge
Most voters support more government spending to ease cost-of-living pressure despite acknowledging it would lead to higher interest rates.
Handout mentality will only encourage more spending
To use an adapted Trumpism, the community appears to be willing on a ‘spend baby spend’ approach to the cost-of-living crisis.
Anthony Albanese, Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher are expected to execute “hunting licences” as part of a tight cabal formed to slap together a pre-election budget that many Labor ministers didn’t think would be delivered.