Newspoll reveals Ley’s challenge as new Liberal leader tackles curse

Of the seven politicians before Sussan Ley to take on the leadership of a party defeated at a recent election, only one – Anthony Albanese – has gone on to become prime minister.

Sussan Ley during question time in Parliament House on Thursday. Picture: Martin Ollman/NewsWire

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Taking the leadership of an opposition still smarting from an election loss is often a chastening, thankless and personally futile experience – and as Sussan Ley enters her second week of parliament on Monday, her first set of Newspoll numbers won’t have offered much encouragement.

Since The Australian began publishing Newspolls 40 years ago, only one of the seven politicians before Ms Ley to take on the leadership of a party shortly after an election defeat – Anthony Albanese – has gone on to become prime minister.

In the other six cases, at least one leadership change – and often more than one election – was needed for the opposition party to return to power.

The first Newspoll of the 48th parliament, published exclusively in The Australian last Monday, revealed that Ms Ley’s satisfaction numbers were close to those of her predecessor Peter Dutton and her head-to-head rating against Mr Albanese was better than the ousted Liberal leader three years ago.

But looking back through Newspoll history, Mr Dutton is a low bar for comparison. On top of that, Ms Ley has to confront a greatly diminished Liberal presence in parliament; Coalition primary vote support that has slid below 30 per cent for the first time in Newspoll history; the Coalition’s ongoing climate policy nightmare with an internal Nationals row over whether to dump the net-zero emissions target; and division with her Senate leader Michaelia Cash over welcome-to-country acknowledgments and the use of the Indigenous flag.

Ms Ley’s net satisfaction rating of minus 7 was the worst of the eight opposition leaders newly elevated to the role after an election loss, as was her dissatisfaction rating of 42 per cent. And she started the parliamentary term 20 points behind on the better prime minister question, with the support of 32 per cent of voters compared with Mr Albanese’s 52 per cent.

All smiles … Anthony Albanese during question time in Parliament House on Thursday. Picture: Martin Ollman/NewsWire

Although Ms Ley’s better prime minister rating was higher than many of her opposition leader predecessors in their first polls, she can’t look to as large a rump of uncommitted voters yet to judge her merits as previous opposition leaders in her position could.

Mirroring Mr Dutton’s results, only one in six voters was unsure whether Ms Ley or Mr Albanese would make the better prime minister, while about one in five was yet to form an opinion on how well she was doing in her new role.

When Mr Albanese took the Labor leadership after Bill Shorten led the party to a second consecutive election defeat in 2019, he had a net satisfaction rating of positive 3 – 10 points better than Ms Ley now.

Mr Albanese, too, faced a sizeable deficit on the better prime minister question in his first poll as leader, trailing Scott Morrison 48-31, but he was able to turn that around within six months as the Liberal prime minister’s Hawaii holiday during the east coast bushfires crisis damaged his popularity. When the Covid pandemic hit in March 2020, Mr Morrison surged to a massive lead again, peaking at 61-26, but by the 2022 election, Mr Albanese had drawn level.

Over the past 40 years, satisfaction with new opposition leaders has declined, reaching a new low with Ms Ley’s negative 7 and broadly following the pattern of primary vote falls both major parties have suffered.

Former Labor leader Kim Beazley roars with laughter during a question time in 1996, flanked by Gareth Evans, left, and Michael Lee.

Kim Beazley began his first term as Labor leader after John Howard’s Coalition swept to power in 1996 with a net satisfaction rating of positive 21, while former Liberal leaders John Hewson (positive 18), who replaced Andrew Peacock after the 1990 election defeat, and Brendan Nelson (positive 17), who took over after the Howard government was ousted in 2007, also enjoyed positive double-digital net satisfaction ratings.

Simon Crean (positive 5 in late 2001) and Bill Shorten (positive 8 in 2013), too, were on the right side of the ledger when they took over the ALP.

Yet none of these five opposition leaders would go on to win an election, with Dr Nelson not even making it to polling day, replaced by Malcolm Turnbull just 10 months after the 2007 election.

Other than Mr Albanese, all three opposition leaders of the past 40 years who did become prime minister did so after taking the role mid-term.

Mr Howard’s second stint as Liberal opposition leader lasted barely a year before he won the 1996 election, while Kevin Rudd was Labor leader for 11 months before winning in 2007.

Tony Abbott also took the Liberal leadership 11 months before the 2010 election was due but narrowly fell short of victory after Julia Gillard called an early poll soon after replacing Kevin Rudd as Labor was reduced the minority government. Mr Abbott was successful three years later against the reinstated Mr Rudd.

On both the satisfaction and better prime minister questions, there has been a steady decline in the percentage of voters who were uncommitted.

When Dr Hewson started as Liberal leader, 52 per cent were not prepared to rate his performance in his first poll, while Mr Beazely, Mr Crean, Dr Nelson and Mr Shorten all recorded an uncommitted rating of more than 40 per cent in their first polls. By comparison only a quarter or fewer were unsure about the past three opposition leaders: Mr Albanese, Mr Dutton and Ms Ley.

When nominating which major party leader was a better option as prime minister, the uncommitted percentage has fallen from 27 per cent for Dr Hewson in 1990 to the 16 per cent recorded by Mr Dutton and Ms Ley.