Newspoll: Coalition vote collapses as Labor snags a second honeymoon

The Coalition’s primary vote has fallen to its lowest point since Newspoll’s inception in 1985, while Anthony Albanese faces poor approval ratings at the start of his government’s second term.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday, and Opposition Leader Sussan Ley. Picture: Facebook, Martin Ollman/NewsWire

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Core support for the Coalition has collapsed to the lowest point in 40 years following Labor’s convincing election victory, despite poor approval ratings for Anthony Albanese’s leadership at the start of his government’s second term.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian – the first to test the electoral mood since the May 3 election – also shows that primary vote support for both major parties has fallen to an historical trough of 65 per cent.

When preference flows are factored in, Labor has extended its two-party-preferred lead of 55.2-44.8 per cent at the election to 57-43 per cent over the ­Coalition.

This is the equal highest lead for Labor on this measure since August 2022, reflecting a 1.8 percentage point increase on its election result, which produced its highest number of seats in parliament. This is on the back of a 1.4 percentage point improvement in Labor’s primary vote to 36 per cent.

Support for the Coalition has suffered a further decline since it recorded its lowest ever election primary vote of 31.8 per cent.

Its primary vote now stands at 29 per cent.

This is the worst recorded primary vote for the Liberal/Nationals parties since Newspoll first compared primary vote levels across the federal parties in ­November 1985.

It is also 11 points down on the Coalition’s recent peak of 40 per cent just eight months ago, when the Albanese government was considered to be heading towards a potential election defeat.

While some of the Coalition’s vote has transferred to the Labor column, there has also been a drift on the right to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which has gained 1.6 percentage points to 8 per cent.

The Greens remain steady at 12 per cent as does the vote for other independents and minor parties including teal independents, unchanged at 15 per cent.

The Prime Minister has also improved marginally on his pre-election approval levels of minus 10 but has failed to lift his personal support into positive territory, with 47 per cent of voters satisfied with his performance.

An equal number remain dissatisfied, however, giving him a net approval rating of zero.

The first Newspoll conducted after the 2022 election saw Mr Albanese’s approval rating soar to 61 per cent.

Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s approval ratings are consistent with newly elected opposition leaders, with 23 per cent of voters not committing to a view of the relatively unknown leader.

Approval of Ms Ley’s performance after two months in the job is at 35 per cent, which is two points lower than Peter Dutton’s approval rating at the same point in the cycle of his leadership.

Disapproval of Ms Ley’s performance was 42 per cent, which is broadly in line with the 41 per cent recorded by Mr Dutton in the first Newspoll after the 2022 election.

Mr Albanese retains a commanding lead as the preferred prime minister ­on 52-32 over his rival, but this is a better number for Ms Ley compared with Mr Dutton in his first outing as Liberal leader when Mr Albanese led him by 59-25 on this measure.

The strong support for independents and the collapse in primary vote support for the Coalition has reduced the combined primary vote support for the major parties to just 65 per cent.

This is the lowest on record and continues a trend that has been growing over the past three elections, with the May 2025 result recording 66.4 per cent.

In the 2022 election, it was 68.3 per cent, which was the first time the combined primary vote had dipped below 70 per cent.

The political landscape in the first two months of the Albanese government’s second term in office has been dominated by global events including conflict in the Middle-East, US President Donald Trump’s second round of tariffs and Mr Albanese’s five-day trip to Beijing.

On the domestic front, Mr Albanese has flagged tax and productivity reform while the Reserve Bank of Australia shocked the markets by holding off on a further interest rate cut as cost-of-living pressures continue, despite lower inflation data.

The Newspoll will confirm for Mr Albanese that his domestic election mandate continues to be endorsed by voters as the new parliament resumes for its first sitting period tomorrow.