Peter Dutton doesn’t get the roar he wanted, but Anthony Albanese must listen to the Dunkley voters

It was certainly not the roar that the Liberal Party was hoping for but voters have delivered a negative midterm verdict on Anthony Albanese’s leadership and the government’s response so far to the cost-of-living crisis.

The message has been sent.

And while Anthony Albanese will be relieved at retaining Dunkley, he would be unwise to ignore the swing.

Equally, for Peter Dutton, the Liberal leader will be now wanting to look at why they didn’t do better.

Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

Dutton needed confirmation that the Coalition has the right strategy to make it competitive at the next election. This will give the Liberal Party at least some hope.

Dunkley voters have registered a protest vote in a seat that represents the broader battle for Middle Australia now being fought between Labor and the Coalition.

But the result suggests that Albanese’s tax cut reset has flatlined. His authority is diminished from a broken promise in delivering them.

But Dutton will have to be making bigger inroads in seats like this if it wants to be competitive in 12 months’ time.

Jodie Belyea’s mother Anne, centre, talks to Jodie on the phone after the result is called. Picture: Mark Stewart

Conditions were ripe for a protest vote in Dunkley. Rising petrol prices, energy prices, mortgage costs and rents have been felt heavily in this outer suburban Melbourne seat.

This was a seat that also voted above the Victorian average against the voice referendum.

Winning Dunkley was always going to be a big ask for Dutton. Victoria is the Liberal Party’s weakest state.

The equivalent of a landslide was always required.

The anger against the government was also going to be potentially tempered by local sympathy following the death of the popular Labor member Peta Murphy.

More broadly, taking out the by-election factors, a swing of this size at a general election would force Labor into minority government not only with the Greens but the teal independents as well.

The potential for chaos would be profound.

This is a message the Coalition has already been road testing in early campaign research work.