Dunkley by-election: 'I'm a Frankston mum with a dog and mortgage': Jodie Belyea

Jodie Belyea tells her supporters she's one of them although she is the 'second most important Jodie in Albo's life' as she celebrates her victory in Frankston.

Jenna Clarke and Richard Ferguson

less than 2 min read

March 2, 2024 - 8:29AM

Jodie Belyea Gives her victory speech in Frankston. Picture: Mark Stewart

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Belyea stirs 'cauldron of excitement'

Joe Kelly

It's a party at the Frankston Bowling Club where Jodie Belyea has won the critical Dunkley by-election billed as a referendum on Anthony Albanese's stage three tax cut redesign.

The local venue has been transformed into a small cauldron of excitement with about two hundred Labor supporters erupting in delight at the victory of their candidate – and loudly booing each time a Liberal MP has appeared on the TVs located at either end of the bowling club hall.

The mood in the room has slowly changed over the last two and half hours, shifting from nervousness to growing confidence to exhilaration at the incoming results which have all confirmed a win for Ms Belyea.

A vocal sea of Labor red-shirt wearing supporters has been cheering loudly each time the two party preferred swing has been displayed on the TVs – with the results showing, each time, the shift towards Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy falling well short of the needed 6.3 per cent swing for the Liberals to retake the electorate.

A chant broke out at about 8:15pm with Labor campaigners sensing victory was not far away, with scores of people shouting "Jodie, Jodie, Jodie, Jodie" with the chorus growing even louder after the result was called in Labor's favour about 30 minutes later.

Dunkley delivers a win, and firm message, for Albanese

Simon Benson

It was certainly not the roar that the Liberal party was hoping for but voters have delivered a negative mid-term verdict on Anthony Albanese’s leadership and the government’s response so far to the cost-of-living crisis.

The message has been sent.

And while Anthony Albanese will be relieved at retaining Dunkley, he would be unwise to ignore the swing.

Equally, For Peter Dutton, the Liberal leader will be now wanting to look at why they didn’t do better.

Dutton needed confirmation that the Coalition has the right strategy to make it competitive at the next election. This will give the Liberal party at least some hope.

Dunkley voters have registered a protest vote in a seat that represents the broader battle for middle Australia now being fought between Labor and the Coalition.

But the result suggests that Albanese’s tax cut reset has flatlined. His authority is diminished from a broken promise in delivering them.

But Dutton will have to be making bigger inroads in seats like this if it wants to be competitive in 12 months’ time.

Read more here.

'Second most important Jodie' thanks supporters

"I"m a mum from Frankston with two dogs and a mortgage and I'm going to be your member for Dunkley," is how Jodie Belyea took the stage to graciously accept her by-election win.

Ms Beylea said she is looking forward to getting to Canberra to continue the "hard work" of the campaign and remaining "Frankston tough" when she gets to Parliament House.

She confirmed her team door knocked 15,000 homes over the past couple of weeks all over the electorate.

Anthony Albanese texted Ms Beylea to congratulate her on a good campaign and welcomed her to the federal ALP family.

"The Prime Minister texted me a minute ago and confirmed I am now the second most important Jodie in his life," Ms Beylea told her supporters.

Conroy praises Dutton, warns Albo: "We're coming for you"

John Ferguson

Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy conceded defeat before 9pm, adding that "we're coming for Albanese and his government".

Flagging his intention to run again, he said the cost of living, health and crime were crucial issues for voters.

He singled out Peter Dutton and the Liberal leadership team for having bolstered the Liberal vote.

"We couldn't have done it without you,'' he said.

Meanwhile Treasurer Jim Chalmers was one of the first to congratulate the new MP Jodie Jodie Beylea, tweeting his support for his new colleague.

Not complacent about great @AustralianLabor win in Dunkley but really looking forward to serving with Jodie Belyea & very grateful to the working people & communities who saw through scare campaigns & culture wars & voted for our cost of living tax cuts for every taxpayer #auspol
— Jim Chalmers MP (@JEChalmers) March 2, 2024

Conroy confirms desires to run again for Libs

Nathan Conroy has confirmed he will be interested in running again for the Liberal party in the upcoming general election, despite losing the Dunkley by-election.

"Go Liberals!" the Frankston mayor told supporters as he thanked volunteers and the local community for turning out for him and the conservative cause.

During his concession speech Mr Conroy quoted former US (Democrat) First Lady Michelle Obama in addressing the heckling and "intimidation" ALP supporters he experienced on the booths: "When they go low, we go high."

Mr Conroy also confirmed he has lost 15kg during the campaign – where he hasn't had a day off since January.

He also said he has also learned he is expecting his second child with his wife "whispering" the good news in his ear as he took the stage.

Mr Conroy also praised Peta Murphy's legacy and wished Jodie Beylea well for her tenure in Canberra.

"When she does well, our community does well," Mr Conroy said.

Dunkley result enough for an election win: Ley

Richard Ferguson

The likely swing of three to four per cent in the Dunkley by-election would be enough to get the Coalition near the government benches, Deputy Liberal Leader Sussan Ley says.

As she introduced losing Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy, Ms Ley said in Frankston that the results would give the Coalition at least 11 seats if replicated nationally at the election.

"We are coming after (Labor) in Aston, in Higgins, in McEwen. In my home state of NSW – I'm just over the border – we are coming after you in Paramatta, in Gilmore, in Bennelong, We're coming after you in Lyons, in Tasmania and Boothby in South Australia," she told the party faithful in Frankston.

"A vote for Nathan Conroy, a swing to Nathan Conroy is a swing towards the Federal Liberals. To Peter Dutton, our fantastic, fearless leader.

"The people of Dunkley have sent Anthony Albanese a really strong message. And it's not Happy Birthday. It's 'do something about the cost of living crisis.' "

Greens focused on emotion, not policy: Marles

Richard Marles says the Dunkley result is indicative of the work of the government's "prudent, sensible economic management" and is looking forward to welcoming the new member Jodie Baylea to Canberra.

The deputy prime minister also said the disastrous result for the Greens being "populist" but stopped short of blaming the minor party's perceived anti-Semitism.

"The Greens go about their business in a very populist kind of way. Their party is based on giving people an experience rather than giving people policy. They are an emotion based party and they have been very populist of late," Mr Marles said.

Libs concede to ALP

The Liberal candidate for Dunkley Nathan Conroy has called Jodie Baylea to concede defeat.

Ms Baylea, who was endorsed by the former member Peta Murphy before her death last year, is now en route to her event in Frankston to address her supporters, where Ms Murphy's husband is among the crowd.

Dunkley will 'change' mood of the Liberal party

Former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett says the Dunkley campaign has changed the mood of the party.

"This is a good result for us. The public are starting to see through Labor and how what they are doing doesn't impact the middle class," Mr Kennet told Sky News.

"This has changed the mood of the party. Thanks to a good quality candidate and energetic campaign. I haven't seen something like this is in years, where young and experience supporters of the party have turned out to support a candidate and campaign. This will change not only how we pre select candidates, but how we campaign in the future."

Mr Kennett, who is celebrating his 76th birthday on Saturday – the same day as Anthony Albanese – invited the prime minister to Victoria "he's obviously too busy," Mr Kennett said.

Labor on track to hold seat

John Ferguson

Labor is on track to retain the seat of Dunkley despite some solid swings to the Liberal Party in former heartland sections of the electorate.

Labor’s primary vote appears to have held up at about 40 per cent, which has mirrored the 2022 result.

The Liberal primary vote climbed by close to 7 per centage points but the two party-preferred vote was looming to be well below the 6.3 per cent needed to defeat Labor.

Early voting results showed strong gains for the Liberal Party in the well-heeled parts of the electorate in the south.

However, the Greens vote fell sharply and the final result will hinge on postal and pre-poll voting.

The two party-preferred swing was forecast to be about 3 per cent before the counting of postals and pre-polls, which will still render Dunkley a marginal Labor seat at the 2025 poll.

Liberal strategists were happy with the strong performance in the seat’s south but gains were more modest in the cost of living booths to the north of Dunkley.

The Liberal result in the seat’s south is one of the best for the party in Victoria since it bolstered its inner-eastern vote at the last Victorian election.

But the likely final two party-preferred result being well below the 6.3 per cent needed for the seat to change hands will be viewed as a mixed result for the Liberal Party.

Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley said the result was a strong endorsement of leader Peter Dutton.

"It's a strong swing. It's very encouraging,'' she said.

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