PM warns Dunkley voters against Dutton on eve of tight by-election fight

Anthony Albanese has accused Peter Dutton of having a ‘pathological addiction to negativity’ with no ideas to help Australians amid Labor fears of a sizeable swing against the government.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton campaigning with Dunkley Liberal Party candidate Nathan Conroy and opposition finance spokeswoman Jane Hume on Friday. Picture: David Crosling/NCA NewsWire

Anthony Albanese has accused Peter Dutton of having a “pathological addiction to negativity”, with no ideas or policies to ease cost-of-living pressures for Australians, in a by-election eve pitch to Dunkley voters amid growing fears of a sizeable swing against the government.

As the Prime Minister and ­Opposition Leader prepared final campaign blitzes in the southern bayside Melbourne seat on Saturday morning, Mr Albanese launched an extraordinary attack on the Opposition Leader who he said “always put politics ahead of people”.

The Labor leader, who on Friday joined his candidate Jodie ­Belyea on the hustings in the seat held by the late Peta Murphy on a comfortable 6.3 per cent margin, said Dunkley voters had a “very clear choice”.

“This by-election is a choice between a Frankston mum with a mortgage who understands the cost of living and a former Frankston mayor (Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy) who put council rates through the roof,” Mr Albanese writes in The Weekend ­Australian. “It’s a choice between a Labor candidate backed by the late Peta Murphy to carry on her work and a Liberal candidate only ­interested in echoing his party’s empty scare campaigns.

“This is the very clear choice for people voting in Dunkley … a strong Labor member on their side in Canberra, or another Liberal politician sitting on the sidelines saying no to every policy.”

With Liberal strategists increasingly confident of a swing to Mr Conroy of about 5 per cent, Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton traded barbs in Dunkley on Friday ahead of a by-election that looms as a key test of leadership just over a year out from the 2025 election.

As the contest tightened, ALP social media platforms on Friday night posted a video of former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard rallying voters behind Ms Belyea. Ms Gillard, who has generally avoided politics since her retirement, urged voters to “vote for Jodie, vote for Labor”.

“My friend, the late Peta Murphy, was one of a kind,” Ms Gillard said. “A fierce advocate for her community and for the issues she was so passionate about: we will all miss her dearly. That’s why it’s so important that we have a Labor member for Dunkley who will continue to build on Peta’s legacy and Jodie Belyea will be that strong local voice”.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

After neutralising government attempts to spark a Dunkley fight over Labor’s stage three tax cuts overhaul, Mr Dutton has urged voters to send a message to Mr Albanese that he is not doing enough to help, amid rising mortgage stress, power bills and insurance premiums.

The Liberal Party has run hard on Labor’s “family car and ute tax”, which they say Energy Minister Chris Bowen wants to impose under his fuel efficiency standards plan, immigration scandals following the release of 149 dangerous non-citizens, border security and new taxes.

Mr Albanese, who will celebrate his 61st birthday in Sydney on Saturday night, said Mr Dutton had opposed Labor’s cost-of-living policies including cheaper child care and medicines, bulk-billing incentives and energy bill relief. The Prime Minister accuses Mr Dutton of plotting to roll back Labor’s stage three tax cuts, wanting “people to work longer for less” and undermining institutions. “Peter Dutton’s pathological addiction to negativity knows no limits,” he writes. “He’s got nothing positive to offer our country, or your community. He’s got no ideas to help people and no interest in doing so, all he wants to do is pick a fight.

“Under Peter Dutton, the Liberals always put politics ahead of people. They did it when they tried to stop families and pensioners getting help with their power bills, they did it again when they voted against cheaper medicines and attacked cheaper child care. And as we’ve seen in recent days, there is no issue or institution he isn’t prepared to politicise. That’s not strong, it’s wrong.”

Asked about ramifications if Labor retained Dunkley, Mr Dutton said: “It’s a 6.3 per cent margin, which is a very significant margin. I think that if there is a 3 per cent swing against the government, particularly given there was an over 6 per cent swing to the government in Aston only a matter of months ago, that would be a devastating result for the Prime Minister,” Mr Dutton said.

“I do think it’s an opportunity for people to send a message to Mr Albanese that he’s not putting in place policies which are helping people. I think there’ll be a number of motivations for people to vote. I’ve noticed that my favourability numbers are better than Mr Albanese’s, and people have different motivations.”

The Australian Electoral Commission on Friday night said 29,928 out of 113,598 enrolled in Dunkley had voted early, in addition to 21,900 who applied for postal votes.

With United Australia Party and One Nation not fielding candidates, after claiming almost 8 per cent of the primary vote in 2022, the Liberal Party must win up to 45 per cent of the primary vote to claim victory.

Leader of the Opposition, Peter Dutton holds a press conference with liberal candidate for the Dunkley by election, Nathan Conroy.

Murphy, who in 2019 ended 23 years of Liberal dominance in Dunkley and increased her primary vote to 40.23 per cent at the last election, benefited from Greens preferences with the minor party securing 10.3 per cent of 2022 vote.

If the 6.3 per cent swing against Labor that the Coalition needs to win Dunkley were replicated on a uniform basis at the next federal election. it would mean the loss of a further 18 Labor seats across the country, not accounting for the upcoming electoral redistribution which will cost both Victoria and NSW a seat while handing one to Western Australia. While uniform swings are not observed at federal elections, a notional 4 per cent swing nationally would cost Labor a total of 11 seats.

Labor holds 78 out of 151 lower-house seats.

While Mr Albanese will face questions from anxious backbenchers and ministers if the Liberals secure a swing above 4 per cent, Mr Dutton faces retribution if the expected swing against the government fails to materialise. Pressure is building on Mr Dutton to release Coalition election policies in his budget-reply speech in May.

Labor sources said a win on Saturday would be considered a victory for Mr Albanese, even if there was a sizeable swing against the government, but a loss would raise questions about the Prime Minister’s ability to sell Labor’s economic narrative.

Senior ALP strategists said their negative advertising campaign tied Mr Conroy with Mr Dutton who they describe as “the worst health minister in history”. The attack on Mr Dutton’s time as health minister was used during the Aston by-election.

But a Labor MP said the optics of Mr Albanese’s appearances at musical performances by pop divas Taylor Swift and Katy Perry ahead of a by-election fought on the cost of living was a mistake.

Australian National University professor John Wanna said a Labor loss would likely see the cabinet get a “bit unruly” and drive pressure for a political reset while placing higher expectations on the May budget. He said an easy Labor victory would raise questions about Mr Dutton’s appeal and the Coalition’s policy direction.

Liberal sources said winning the by-election would be a major feat, but did not dismiss it as impossible. Senior party figures acknowledged greater solidarity on the centre-right of politics with conservative group Advance spending $250,000 on advertising and campaigning in Dunkley.

ALP sources said they were expecting the government to hold the seat, arguing the stage three tax cut redesign adopted in January had been critical in giving fresh momentum to Labor after rolling scandals late last year.