There is now a bipartisan view that the Dunkley by-election is on a knife edge, there will be a swing against Labor, a possible low turnout will work against the government and the final swing, which will determine whether Anthony Albanese is viewed as a “winner” or “loser”, will be determined by a few thousand people making a last-minute decision.
While the Prime Minister campaigns on the benefits of the tax cuts, shaped and timed for the residents of Dunkley to arrest a slide in support, revelations of a deepening crisis over the release of criminal immigration detainees sucks the air from Labor’s argument.
What’s more the theme of “sending a message” to the Albanese government over cost-of-living stress for families, policy confusion and incompetence of ministers after almost two years in office is resonating in the Melbourne electorate.
The inability of Immigration Minister Andrew Giles to answer questions in parliament about why none of the 149 released detainees, including murderers and rapists, have faced orders to be detained, why “constant monitoring”, including ankle bracelets, has not prevented more alleged crimes being committed and how many are still on the street, highlights a long-running ineptitude.
Albanese was even forced to declare he had full confidence in Giles after not actually defending him in one question in parliament when he was asked to “sack” the “disaster” of a minister.
There is also a bipartisan view that the recast stage 3 tax cuts, including tax cuts for people earning less than $45,000, which were deliberately shaped and timed for the Dunkley by-election, lifted Labor support in the Melbourne electorate back above the Coalition in January.
But there is rising concern within ALP ranks and rising conviction within Liberal ranks that the political sale of the tax cuts has failed with Albanese even telling his Labor MPs this week that there were still people who were unaware of the massive tax shift.
Albanese’s concentration on the tax cuts and public polling showing his personal standing has suffered badly over the broken promise of the tax cuts has ensured the by-election will be a referendum on both the $105bn tax breaks and the PM’s leadership.
The size of the swing – it’s unlikely the seat will be lost to the Liberals – will also be closely watched by Labor MPs who hold seats with lower margins than Dunkley’s 6.3 per cent and fear the initial advantage of the tax cuts is being lost for lack of salesmanship.
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