PM warned to brace for swing in Dunkley on Saturday night

Peter Dutton will launch a campaign blitz on the eve of the Dunkley by-election after polling revealed the Liberals could come close to a shock win on Saturday.

Labor candidate Jodie Belyea campaigning in Carrum Downs ahead of Saturday’s Dunkley by-election. Picture: Aaron Francis/Herald Sun

Peter Dutton and Coalition frontbenchers will launch a 48-hour campaign blitz in the Labor-held Melbourne seat of Dunkley after internal polling revealing the ­Liberals could secure a swing of about 5 per cent fuelled opposition hopes of a shock win on Saturday night.

The Opposition Leader and his leadership team on Thursday were preparing an all-out assault on Dunkley, amid rising expectations that Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy was within striking distance of stealing the seat from Anthony Albanese in a tight vote.

Ahead of the Prime Minister campaigning with Labor candidate Jodie Belyea on Friday, ALP strategists acknowledged the race to hold the southern Melbourne bayside seat – won in 2022 by the late Peta Murphy on a 6.3 per cent margin – could “come down to the wire” as voters deliver their verdict on the Albanese government.

The by-election battle for Dunkley, a seat held by the Liberals from 1996 to 2019, is viewed as high stakes for the leadership of both Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton. If Labor holds on by a slim margin, government backbenchers and ministers are expected to get jittery almost a year out from the 2025 election.

Focus groups and polling reveal the cost-of-living crisis and soaring energy bills dominate the concerns of Dunkley voters, who also express negative sentiment towards Mr Albanese and the voice referendum and anxiety about immigration and border ­security.

After the Liberals’ thumping Aston by-election defeat in Melbourne last year, after a 6.4 per cent swing to Labor, senior Coalition sources said they were cautious and believed they would fall short despite the result likely being closer than expected.

Following the Liberals’ 2022 election bloodbath in Victoria, expectations of victory remain tempered given recent results and electoral boundary changes.

Since World War II, the average swing against a government in a federal by-election is 3.6 per cent and 1.5 per cent for a first-term government. No first-term government has lost a seat in a by-election since the 1940s.

Murphy’s popularity in Dunkley is also viewed as a positive for Ms Belyea.

Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy campaigning in Frankston for the Dunkley by-election this week. Aaron Francis / Herald Sun

Writing in The Australian, Mr Dutton urged Dunkley voters to “send the Prime Minister a ­message that he needs to do a better job in addressing the cost-of-living crisis”.

“Mr Albanese promised that you would be better off under Labor,” Mr Dutton write. “He said life would be ‘cheaper’ under him. He promised that your power bills would go down by $275. He promised you ‘cheaper mortgages’.

“He said ‘my word is my bond’. But are you better off now than you were when Mr Albanese was elected? That’s the question every person in Dunkley should ask themselves ahead of voting on Saturday. While the Dunkley by-election won’t change the ­government, the result can send a clear message to Anthony ­Albanese: that his cost-of-living crisis is hurting, and he needs to do better.”

Seizing on Labor’s promise to slash energy bills by $275 a year from 2025, the Coalition released new analysis claiming Dunkley households were paying nearly $380 more a year for their power after almost 30 per cent price hikes since the election.

With the by-election looming as a referendum on his revamped stage three tax cuts, Mr Albanese said Labor’s tax plan supported “the aspirations of all Australians”.

“We know that aspiration doesn’t start at the top of the tax bracket,” Mr Albanese said. “We know that hardworking Australian families work hard in order to get ahead. They work hard so their children will have better opportunities in life as well.”

Mr Albanese, who has repeatedly said that since the Hawke government the average swing in government-held seats at by-elections is about 7 per cent, will return from Melbourne to Sydney on Saturday night to celebrate his 61st birthday. Mr Albanese has been told Ms Belyea will likely hold the seat but he should prepare for a sizeable swing.

Right-wing activist group Advance has targeted Dunkley with trucks, advertising, social media posts, text messages and phone calls warning about Labor’s release of 149 dangerous non-citizens following a High Court decision. Mr Dutton said the government was “asleep at the wheel on community safety and national security”.

In a disastrous series of events on Thursday, Victoria Police and Australian Border Force were forced to backtrack after announcing a former immigration detainee and serial sex offender had been charged with sexual offences.

Following a bruising question time, in which Mr Dutton attacked Mr Albanese for being weak and demanded under-fire Immigration Minister Andrew Giles be sacked, Victoria Police said they had dropped charges against the 44-year-old man after reviewing CCTV footage.

Mr Dutton, a former immigration, home affairs and defence minister, said: “The first responsibility of a national government is to keep the community safe – and the Albanese government has failed on that front.”

Coalition analysis of Dunkley energy prices claims small business bills increased by almost 35 per cent in two years, or an extra $3244 a year. The figures were calculated using the Victorian default offer for the United Energy distribution zone, which covers the Melbourne electorate.

A spokeswoman for Energy Minister Chris Bowen said Labor’s energy relief plan was shielding Australians from the worst impacts of the global energy crisis. “Household electricity bills in Victoria are an average $300 lower than they would have been without Labor’s plan,” she said.

Mr Conroy, the Frankston Mayor, said “everyone in Dunkley knows that their electricity and gas bills have gone through the roof … we need to send Labor a message to do more to address this cost-of-living crisis”.