Dunkley by-election a perfect storm for Albanese, Dutton

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman

For Anthony Albanese, the Dunkley by-election could either be the perfect storm or the perfect getaway car. For Peter Dutton, it may be the one that got away.

The Prime Minister’s decision to break his word on the stage three tax cuts seems to have put Dunkley beyond the reach of the Liberals.

If Albanese is successful at the weekend, it will finally confirm his small-target approach is the wrong strategy for governing the country. A win in Dunkley will change the stakes and temporarily lift some of the pressure off the PM. It will also give him a licence to lie again.

Post-Dunkley, his renewed confidence and policy freedom could open up real possibilities for a reformist Labor government. The party could finally channel its inner Whitlam and even take a leaf out of Albo’s anti-hero, Jeremy Corbyn’s “Tax the Many” manifesto.

For Anthony Albanese, Dunkley could be the perfect storm. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman

For Peter Dutton, it may be the one that got away. Picture: NCA NewsWire Martin Ollman

It’s in this context that the shuffling of the deckchairs on HMAS Albo is even more interesting.

Three recent appointments can be seen as an admission of how his office wasn’t match fit and failed in last year’s referendum. The introduction of old hand Fiona Sugden and press gallery elder Katharine “Murpharoo” Murphy is seeing instant results. Albanese seems punchier in parliament. Offering tax promise tattoos and handing out other people’s Taylor Swift tickets on FM radio speak of a PM with his mojo back.

But Albanese’s move to install David Epstein as a political equal to his long-term chief of staff, Tim Gartrell, is an interesting development.

I’ve worked with Epstein. He is used to being the boss, an alpha lone wolf and clearly the smartest guy in the room – just ask him. For a PM to have two most senior sources of political advice says he questioned the value of only one previously. I like Gartrell, but from here it’s all upside for the brilliant Epstein. If Albanese wins it will be all down to Epstein’s new and insightful advice. If Labor falls into minority government he’ll bail out back to some corporate gig and blame Gartrell; he’ll probably say he was brought in too late.

Epstein cut his teeth running a political dirt unit with public funds, called ANIMALS, and most recently was semi-retired running the Chifley Foundation while being an occasional late-night tweeter of pro-Albo guff. Albanese clearly wanted to add experience to his office and increase the voices of advice he receives.

These are promising signs: he’s showing he finally wants to be a Labor PM. After three years in opposition and almost two as PM, it’s not a moment too soon. Perhaps he wanted to wait until Scott Morrison left the building before dumping his policies.

The new thinking clearly guided the decision that the PM could attend Taylor Swift last week and then back it up with Katy Perry.

He had tickets and a private box for Tay Tay, and Anthony Pratt hosted him for Katy.

Pratt was recently described by Donald Trump as a “red-haired weirdo”, but he remains a big political donor to the ALP. Donation cash is king and when the call comes, Labor leaders attend.

Still, the PM’s inability to pass up a freebie will irritate voters under cost-of-living pressure. There have been 12 interest rate rises and the cost of electricity, gas, petrol and fresh fruit and vegetables has climbed under Albanese.

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher refashioned the broken promise as a ‘tax cut’. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman

There’s no question Dutton would have been more competitive before the stage three tax splurge by Labor. The silent heroes in all this are the duo of Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, who refashioned the Albanese broken promise as a “tax cut for all”.

Right-wing group Advance showed some spine running the ad about the stateless pedophiles, rapists, slave traders and assassins that Albanese and Immigration Minister Andrew Giles released into the community. Now a rabbit in the headlights, Giles resorting to blaming the High Court just doesn’t cut it with voters worried about past Labor form on porous borders and being soft on crime.

Meanwhile, the Victorian Liberals’ John Pesutto-Moira Deeming clown show has taken vital oxygen away from Dutton’s campaign.

A Dunkley by-election win will be used by the Albanistas as proof that saying nothing, doing nothing and then lying about it all is sound political strategy.

For Albanese, it would be his very own great escape, his prison break. A win would say he’s out of the woods – for now. It will also help bury the memory of the Albanese voice disaster.

But a by-election loss would prove that while Albanese is older he is not wiser. He would then have to face questions from the Labor caucus and, channelling his inner Swiftie, reply: “Hi, it’s me, I’m the problem, it’s me.”