Anthony Albanese is taking no chances as Dunkely by-election looms

The last prime minister to announce an election date so far in advance was Julia Gillard in 2013 as parliament resumed in February and she said the election would be in September blindsiding her MPs and party strategists.

Anthony Albanese has started to back away from his surprise revelation last week that Labor was planning an early March Budget and a May election for next year and alluded to the removal of Julia Gillard as prime minister as a reason for doing so.

The Prime Minister is taking no chances and doesn’t want to tempt fate, especially with a vital by-election in Dunkley on the weekend.

Albanese, who has always said he would go full term with a House of Representatives and half-Senate election due in May 2025, went a step further last week when he said Labor was “expecting” a March Budget next year with the election due in May.

“Once we get through the May (2024) Budget, we expect to have a Budget next year in March as well, and the term ends in May next year”, Albanese said.

While there was always an expectation that Labor would have a special Budget next year if the election was pushed as far as it could go this was the first time the PM had formally announced it.

While logical, the public statement had the immediate effect of having political operatives consult the 2025 calendar and quickly arriving at the conclusion the 2025 election would be on May 3, 10 or 17.

Albanese as prime minister had effectively announced the election date and given away his leadership prerogative of keeping the election date as a strategic advantage over the Opposition.

By nominating a March Budget — March 11 or 18 — the electoral laws and public holidays dictate there can’t be a March or early April election because there have to be 33 days from the announcement of the election to polling day and Easter and Anzac Day cover the end of April.

Thus, May 3, 10 and 17 are the only possible dates for the 2025 election.

The last prime minister to announce an election date so far in advance was Julia Gillard in 2013 as parliament resumed in February and she said the election would be in September blindsiding her MPs and party strategists.

This decision, considered to be politically naive and a miscalculation, was a vital contribution to the reasons for Gillard being removed in a party putsch by Kevin Rudd.

One of Rudd’s first decisions as Labor leader, while Albanese was deputy prime minister, was to wipe the Gillard election date undertaking.

It was with this experience that Albanese chose not to repeat the Budget/election pledge again in numerous interviews since and on Sunday go a step further and downplay the suggestion he had already flagged a March Budget and a May election.

When pressed to talk about election timing, arising from his own comments, Albanese said: “I’m not announcing the election date here today. That’s been done in the past and it hasn’t ended well”.

Indeed, it didn’t with the prime minister who gave away the advantage on election timing not surviving until the election.

Albanese said: “What we’ll do is announce an appropriate date when we get there”.

While repeating that the election is due in May next year and repeating his determination to go full term he didn’t refer to a Budget in March next year and all he would say is: “The election campaign I expect to be in 2025”.

With Newspoll showing now bump for Labor after its massive tax cuts’ move there is every reason for the PM to try and hold on to every advantage he can.