Albanese flags early 2025 budget, renews full-term commitment

Anthony Albanese has flagged for the first time that Labor will alter the budget schedule and there will be another budget in March 2025. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Adam Yip

Anthony Albanese has flagged for the first time that Labor will alter the budget schedule and there will be another budget in March 2025, weeks before an election has to be called.

This is a big call economically and electorally.

It means this year’s May budget, being held at the scheduled time for an annual budget, will not be the last before the election, and so, changes the nature of this budget and the next.

What’s more, another budget next year has a chance to capture the forecast economic improvements in the last half of this year for inflation and growth as well continuing resources exports and profits.

The Prime Minister has always said he would go “full term” for an election – May next year for a half-Senate and House of Representatives election – and, of course, have a budget in May this year, as usual.

But, for the first time he has revealed the government’s planning an early 2025 budget in March – which leaves virtually no time between the budget and the calling of the 2025 election.

Like Malcolm Turnbull in 2016, who brought down a May 2016 budget and called a July double-dissolution election, Albanese appears to be planning to go straight to the people with the budget and economy as the core of the election campaign.

While there was high expectation Labor would bring forward the May 2025 election to allow a fourth budget in three years this prime ministerial confirmation.

On Wednesday Albanese said: “Once we get through the May budget, we expect to have a budget next year in March as well, and the term ends in May next year”.

Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers holds a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

This means the 2024 May budget doesn’t have to be the last before an election and given the political likelihood that the recast tax cuts that take effect from July 1 this year and any other “cost-of-living relief” in the budget will be absorbed or forgotten by May next year Jim Chalmers will have a second bite of the budget cherry before the election.

There is also the political dynamic where Albanese wanted to staunch the fall in Labor’s support at the end of last year, continue to attack and undermine Peter Dutton’s leadership and start with a more positive agenda in 2025.

Albanese’s concession makes sense in all the circumstances of politics, the economy and election timing and makes it far more likely there will be no election in 2024 but any leader who sees a “hole in the fence” will go through it if they think they can win.