Advance is ramping up its attack ads ahead of a by-election that could completely alter the political dynamic

Anthony Albanese in Melbourne in early February. Picture: Getty Images

Labor is up against a new model of conservative campaign that it hasn’t encountered before.

Dunkley has become the testing ground, and the consequences are far reaching for both sides.

The involvement of conservative campaign outfit Advance in the March 2 by-election has the potential to not only change the local outcome but also the dynamics for the next federal election.

Advance claims a war chest of $250,000. Any third party that contributes six figures to a local campaign has the potential to have a significant impact. Labor acknowledges this.

Both sides also acknowledge that this model is untested.

On the surface it appears to be an unspoken alignment that has Advance running an aggressive ground campaign – the dirtier side – with the Liberal Party able to sit above the ruck.

Labor officials would have anticipated this possibility, considering Advance’s campaign power during the referendum.

In mid-January, the Albanese government was clearly in trouble, and there was a real fear it could lose Dunkley. A date for the by-election following the death of the sitting member Peta Murphy had yet to be set.

Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albanese, as we now know, had been quietly putting in place the details of a tax cut proposition that they believed would change the game. The date for the by-election was announced only days before the tax cuts were announced.

The strategy appeared sound, with cost of living the primary issue of concern. Yet things have moved since and once again Labor is concerned. Internal and independent polling suggest the contest is tight, in the range of 51-49 per cent.

The challenge for both sides, however, is that very many Dunkley voters either don’t know a by-election is on, have little interest in it, or at best have only a vague notion of the tax cuts Albanese has trumpeted as the cost-of-living panacea.

Advance has a ferocious line of attack across several political flashpoints. Its officials are bullish, and it is using the same tactics it used to undermine the case for constitutional change in the voice referendum, committing significantly to Dunkley with a very simple and clear message: “If you have had enough, put Labor last.”

Cost of living is the focus.

An Advance Australia ad running in the seat of Dunkley.

Advance has been running multiple social media channels with ads that have already delivered more than one million views of content.

Every residence in the electorate will receive two letterbox flyers. The first wave has already gone out.

Advance has billboard trucks on the streets, moving around pre-poll locations. And it is outspending Labor on Facebook.

Now it plans to step up its campaign even further, seeking to generate concern at border protection and community safety failures under Labor.

On Thursday, it will run full-page ads in Melbourne newspapers in a scare campaign over the government’s forced release of criminally convicted immigration detainees.

It asks the question: of the 40 the government has admitted are now living in the community in Victoria, how many are in Dunkley?

This may be crude but it may well be effective.

With a large part of the electorate disengaged, the significance of Advance’s involvement is that its campaign style is likely to get attention.

Labor’s concerns are echoed in an entreaty from ALP president Wayne Swan to party members this week seeking donations to Labor’s campaign.

It wasn’t targeted at the Coalition or the Liberal candidate. It was directly aimed at Advance Australia. An obvious straw man tactic.

“Over the past week, we’ve learnt that right-wing lobby group Advance Australia is pouring $275,000 into the Dunkley by-election,” it says.

“In case you didn’t know, Advance are the brains behind the Vote No campaign, and are funded by a small number of corporate right-wing ideologues.

“They’re trying to import a permanent Trumpist style culture war into Australian politics. Dunkley is their first stop after the referendum.

“The $275,000 set by Advance is a live target that has real implications for the outcome of the by-election. They’re rolling out a sophisticated digital advertising campaign and electorate-wide mail-outs filled with misinformation. That means our targeted digital ads will become more expensive, and our doorknockers will have to work overtime to reach as many people as possible.”

Matthew Sheahan, executive director of Advance, said there was a longer term play that transcended Dunkley. “Our view is that Dunkley is of significant strategic importance,” he said.

“If Labor falls in this seat and the swing was replicated at a federal election, they would lose government. Even if they squeeze out a win, the swing will have more than a few Labor MPs looking over their shoulders.

“If Labor loses the seat, they are inches away from becoming a minority government propped up by teals and Greens.”

Both sides privately brief that the contest is very close, as is usual. But the consequences of a loss would significantly shift the political momentum. A large swing towards the Coalition would also confirm a new – albeit unofficial – campaign model that Labor will need to counter.