Anthony Albanese’s election plan to raid Peter Dutton’s Queensland backyard

Labor will target five Coalition-held Queensland seats to offset losses at the next election, as new polling reveals Australians are more optimistic and back Labor’s stage three tax cuts revamp.

Anthony Albanese in Cairns in January. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Brian Cassey

Anthony Albanese will target five Coalition-held Queensland seats to offset expected losses at the next election, as new polling reveals Australians are more optimistic about the economy and supportive of Labor’s overhaul of stage three tax cuts.

ALP sources confirmed that Labor would throw resources into Longman, Leichhardt, Brisbane, Bonner and Forde in a Queensland blitz that will also focus pressure on Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.

Senior Labor figures have also cautioned that despite a positive response to the stage three tax cuts revamp, more work was required to reconnect with households coping with cost-of-living pressures who felt the Albanese government was distracted by last year’s voice referendum.

“Our primary vote is too low, we have to pick that up. Dutton is all about identity politics, shouting at the clouds. He falls short on economic policy and hasn’t got a quality team around him. We’re confident but we definitely need to win seats,” a Labor source said.

Labor is bracing for losses in Western Australia after hitting a high watermark at the 2022 election, and is expecting tight contests in marginal and Coalition target seats across the country.

The Prime Minister will head to Victoria on Friday to promote his tax cuts package after a dominant week in Canberra, with the ­Coalition committing to passing Labor’s tax cuts legislation and the government pushing its sweeping industrial relations reforms through parliament.

As Mr Albanese and Jim Chalmers sell their economic agenda, a new SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation survey reveals a dramatic bounce back in the national mood and surge in optimism about the 12-month economic outlook.

The poll of almost 1600 voters conducted over five days to Monday, including 523 WA voters, shows 60 per cent backing Labor’s stage three tax cuts. There is also appetite for wider tax reform, with 64 per cent endorsing a national tax summit and 50 per cent supporting less reliance on income tax as a funding source.

While 56 per cent of voters believe Australia is moving in the wrong direction, there has been a 7 per cent rebound in confidence since October, with 44 per cent feeling the country is heading in the right direction. The national mood hit a 12-month high, with 42 per cent expressing positive sentiment, up from 34 per cent in October following the referendum.

Almost 40 per cent of Australians feel the economy will improve in 12 months, up 14 per cent. However, 60 per cent are not confident that inflation will fall over the year.

Unprompted concerns about housing affordability jumped 10 per cent to 36 per cent, behind only cost of living, which fell from 68 to 67 per cent, with 43 per cent of Australians, including renters, women and those aged 35-49, reporting financial difficulty.

While Labor secured swings against Liberal National Party MPs at the last election, the LNP comfortably maintained its Queensland stronghold, with the ALP winning five of 30 seats.

On a two-party-preferred vote, the LNP held Longman by 6653 votes, Bonner by 6568 votes, Leichhardt by 6313 votes and Forde by 8010 votes. Despite edging the Greens in Brisbane by 11 votes on primary vote, preferences pushed Stephen Bates to victory.

Kevin Rudd’s former seat of Griffith, won by Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather, is considered an unlikely gain. Central Queensland seats including Flynn will be tough propositions unless the government improves its energy and climate policy sell.

SEC Newgate partner David Stolper said there has “been a distinct uptick in the national mood, and growing, but guarded, optimism that the economy will strengthen this year”.

He said the revamped stage three tax cuts have “clearly landed well” for the government.

“They appear to have helped to arrest the decline in its overall performance as well as its perceived ability to manage the cost-of-living crisis,” Mr Stolper said.

“But this will continue to be a challenging year with cost-of-living concerns remaining steady at elevated levels, growing focus on the difficult issue of housing affordability, and unease over whether inflation will actually fall in 2024. Four in ten Australians are still dealing with financial difficulty and the federal government will need to carefully manage community expectations about any turnaround in living standards this year.”

Ahead of a state election in October, the polling reported a 10 per cent lift in the mood of Queensland voters, with 44 per cent believing the state is heading in the right direction.

Only 36 per cent of Queenslanders rated the performance of Premier Steven Miles’ government as good. Worst-ranked was the Victorian Labor government, with only 33 per cent rating its performance as good.