Anthony Albanese’s cost-of-living, jobs and natural disaster blitz of five key election states and battleground seats reveals a Prime Minister desperate to reclaim political ground ahead of the crucial Dunkley by-election.
Analysis by The Australian shows that since returning from leave on December 15, the Prime Minister has conducted more than 50 press conferences, interviews, speeches and public appearances as he steps-up campaigning more than a year out from the 2025 election.
The Labor leader is determined to reverse the government’s fortunes after a disastrous end to 2023 dominated by the voice referendum failure, criticism of Albanese’s overseas travel, a 13th rate hike and national security vulnerabilities, headlined by the release of dangerous non-citizens.
Donning hi-vis jackets and dubbing himself the “pro-jobs Prime Minister”, Albanese has promoted his cost-of-living and jobs agenda in Victoria, South Australia, NSW, Tasmania and Queensland, and visited battleground seats including Dunkley, Boothby, Paterson, Parramatta and Leichhardt.
The election-style campaign trail comes ahead of Treasury providing advice on new cost-of-living measures, expected to include expanded energy bill relief, which Albanese could unveil as early as his National Press Club speech on Thursday.
Seeking to address voter concerns that the government’s voice referendum had shifted Labor’s focus from the cost-of-living crisis, Albanese is under pressure to win back support and neutralise Peter Dutton’s re-energised Coalition.
Analysis of Albanese’s appearances in the past month shows a leader responding to criticism he has lost the ear of Middle Australia. In 14 press conferences over the summer break, Albanese has sought to soften his demeanour and make himself more available for scrutiny, sound bytes and vision.
Albanese, who last month delivered a major foreign affairs speech at the Lowy Institute and met with New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, has conducted 19 regional and metropolitan radio station interviews and nine television interviews.
Responding to natural disasters in Queensland, Albanese travelled to Cairns, the Gold Coast and Brisbane multiple times. He spent most of his time in the north Queensland electorate of Leichhardt, a seat long coveted by Labor. Veteran LNP MP Warren Entsch, who is likely to retire at next year’s election, has fended off successive campaigns by Labor to unseat him.
Selling the government’s cost-of-living, health, energy, infrastructure, jobs, manufacturing and skills policies, Albanese last week travelled to Meryl Swanson’s seat of Paterson in the NSW Hunter Region.
Swanson, who lost support at the 2022 election after Liberal candidate Brooke Vitnell won a 4.16 per cent swing on primary vote, is bracing for a tough fight next year. Amid pushback against Chris Bowen’s Hunter offshore wind zone, which impacts Port Stephens, Dutton and Liberal strategists are hopeful of winning a major upset in Swanson’s seat.
Albanese’s flying visit to Tasmania last week responds to Labor fears of falling support in the Apple Isle. Lyons MP Brian Mitchell, who joined Albanese at a salmon processing facility, won his central Tasmania seat in 2022 by only 1,344 votes.
Labor strategists are equally concerned about grumpy voters in suburban Sydney and Melbourne seats, who feel the government has failed to deliver and is out of touch with household priorities.
The mortgage-belt southern Melbourne bayside seat of Dunkley, centred on Frankston, is held by Labor on a margin of just over 6 per cent.
Peta Murphy, who tragically passed away last month, was a popular local member who ended 23-years of Liberal dominance after beating Chris Crewther in 2019. Liberal strategists are hopeful popular Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy can put a major dent in the margin but are not overconfident.
The March 2 by-election, marking 11 months since the government became the first to claim an opposition seat in more than 100 years after winning Aston from the Liberals, is a critical test for Albanese.
Albanese, who has already held two press conferences in Dunkley after launching Jodie Belyea’s campaign, will join Labor ministers and campaigners in a six-week push to stem electoral bleeding and hold on.
While Labor lost marks with voters on the voice and national security, polling and focus groups consistently highlight that the cost-of-living remains the dominant issue for Australians.
With Dunkley at-risk, the government knows it can’t wait until the May 14 budget to relieve crippling pressures on households and businesses.
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