Trump sends a new message to Putin

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at The Hague. Picture: AFP.

It took six months, but President Donald Trump seems to have concluded that Vladimir Putin doesn’t want peace in Ukraine. The Russian leader will have a “lovely” talk with the President “and then the missiles go off that night”, Mr Trump said in the Oval Office on Monday. This new realism is a welcome change from Mr Trump’s previous strategy of leaning only on Ukraine, and has a better chance of getting a ceasefire.

The best news from Monday’s White House meeting is that the free world will continue to arm Ukraine against Putin’s ravages. “In a nutshell, we’re going to make top-of-the-line weapons, and they’ll be sent to NATO” for Ukraine, Mr Trump said while appearing with alliance secretary-general Mark Rutte.

“That might also mean that countries will move equipment fast into Ukraine and then the US later backfilling it,” Mr Rutte added, “because speed is of the essence here.”

Some Patriot air defence missiles could move into Ukraine within days, and they will no doubt be of immediate help. As our Jillian Melchior reported from Kyiv on Monday, Putin has escalated his aerial assault on Ukraine’s cities with ever-more attack drones and missiles. There is no military purpose for this, as Mr Rutte said at the White House, except killing civilians to break Ukrainian morale.

Messrs Trump and Rutte made clear that the weapons for Ukraine will include more than air defences. The implication is that this means more long-range missiles that could reach deep into Russian territory.

The President also threatened a new 100 per cent tariff on countries that buy Russian goods if there’s no progress toward a ceasefire within 50 days. The threat is clearly an attempt to get ahead of the bill by senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal that would slap tariffs of up to 500 per cent on countries that purchase Russian oil and gas products.

The 50-day reprieve is too generous to Putin, who may think it means Mr Trump doesn’t really want to do it. Senators Graham and Blumenthal issued a statement praising Mr Trump’s turn on weapons but with a hint of disappointment that he didn’t endorse their sanctions bill, which has 85 co-sponsors.

But Mr Trump did compliment the bill and suggested he wouldn’t mind if it passed. Passing the bill with large bipartisan majorities would show a broad US consensus against Putin’s imperialism and might even get the Russian’s attention. The bill gives Mr Trump more discretion than we’d like on imposing the tariff sanctions, but it’s also a signal to Mr Trump that congress will back him if he pulls the trigger.

One overlooked tool that Mr Trump didn’t mention, alas, is seizing the $300bn ($458.4bn) or more in Russian assets held in the West. Those funds were frozen after Russia’s February 2022 invasion, but countries have provided Ukraine with help only from the interest payments on those funds. Mr Trump may want to dangle this money as an incentive for Putin to negotiate a peace, but it hasn’t worked. Use the money to help Ukraine buy weapons.

The President is clearly frustrated by his inability to end the war, and he seems to have concluded that Putin is playing him as he has other US leaders. Mr Trump pointedly said the Russian had fooled presidents going back to George W. Bush, and he’s right.

The combination of sanctions and arms is no guarantee that Putin will negotiate a ceasefire. He is hellbent on making Ukraine a Russian satrapy. But as the costs of war rise, so does pressure on Putin. On Monday Mr Rutte said 100,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war this year. Russia’s economy is in trouble at last, and cutting off its financial lifeline from oil sales will hurt Putin’s war machine.

Mr Trump called Monday “a big day”, and it will be if it represents a durable turn toward checking Putin in Europe. The President also said a strong Western Europe is in America’s interests, and an independent Ukraine is essential to that cause.

The Wall Street Journal