Labor holds the seat of Dunkley with reduced margin

Labor has held the crucial seat of Dunkley, weathering the cost-of-living storm but losing ground in traditional Liberal parts of the seat.

Labor has retained the seat of Dunkley after holding onto key cost of living booths, defying a healthy increase in the Liberal primary vote that will render the seat marginal in 2025.

Labor’s primary has held up at about 40 per cent, which has mirrored the 2022 result, in what the Albanese government will view as a respectable outcome.

There were green shoots for the Liberal Party in some booths in the electorate’s south but candidate Nathan Conroy was expected to fall well short of the 6.3 per cent needed to defeat Labor on the two party-preferred measure.

This has handed the seat to ALP community worker Jodie Belyea, with the Labor margin falling to 52.4 per cent after just under 70 per cent of the vote had been counted.

The Liberal primary vote was up 6.8 per cent, a strong result in the political market for the Liberal Party in Victoria.

The Greens vote fell sharply in Dunkley - down nearly four points - and the final result will hinge on postal and pre-poll votes, which were breaking slightly towards the Liberal Party.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said Labor would closely examine the result, focusing on cost of living and measures.

He said that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had been front and centre during campaigning.

“And tonight is a very big night for the Prime Minister,’’ Mr Marles said, paying an emotional tribute to the late Labor MP Peta Murphy.

Ms Belyea painted herself as a mother with two dogs and a mortgage.

“I am not a career politician,’’ she said.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers tweeted: “Not complacent about great @AustralianLabor win in Dunkley but really looking forward to serving with Jodie Belyea & very grateful to the working people & communities who saw through scare campaigns & culture wars & voted for our cost of living tax cuts for every taxpayer.’’

Former ALP senator Senator Stephen Conroy warned on Sky: “Labor should not be in any way over the moon about this.’’

The two party-preferred swing was forecast to be close to 4 per cent, which will shift Dunkley to marginal seat territory in 2025 and winnable for the Coalition.

Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy conceded defeat before 9pm, adding that “we’re coming for Albanese and his government”.

Flagging his intention to run again, he said the cost of living, health and crime were crucial issues for voters.

He singled out Peter Dutton and the Liberal leadership team for having bolstered the Liberal vote.

“We couldn’t have done it without you,’’ he said.

Liberal strategists were happy with aspects of the party’s performance in the seat’s south but gains were more modest in the cost of living booths to the north and north-east of Dunkley.

The Liberal result in the seat’s south is one of the better outcomes for the party in Victoria since it bolstered its inner-eastern vote at the last Victorian election.

But the likely final two party-preferred result defied early voting trends on Saturday night that heightened expectations of a possible Liberal win.

The late Peta Murphy won the seat for Labor in 2022 with 40.23 per cent of the primary vote, with the Liberal Sharn Coombes securing just 32.5 per cent.

This translated to a two party-preferred result of 56.3 per cent to Labor.

The seat, with a 2022 margin of 6.3 per cent, is about 40km southeast of Melbourne’s CBD.

At its southern end, Mt Eliza is the de facto gateway to some of the richest seaside territory in Australia at Portsea and Sorrento, and was once considered reliable conservative ground.

This was until teal-minded voters started turning against the Liberal Party.

The Frankston central business district is at the heart of the electorate, with the north of the electorate suburbs including Seaford tending to vote Labor.

Suburbs like Langwarrin have a high percentage of well-off tradies and other similar occupations.

Dunkley was held by the Liberals from 1996 to 2019 and has been viewed as high stakes for both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

The Prime Minister on Saturday described the Dunkley by-election as the election “no-one wanted”, after it was triggered by the death of Ms Murphy who died last year after a battle with breast cancer.

“We’ve put forward, I think, very clearly the best candidate in Jodie Belyea who will carry on the work of the magnificent Peta Murphy,” he told Nine on Saturday morning.

“No one in this local community wanted this by-election because Peta Murphy was taken from us too soon at age 50 sadly.

“One of the things Peta did was recruit Jodie Belyea to the Labor Party to carry on her legacy of strong advocacy and working for this local community, and I’m very confident that Jodie Belyea will do just that.

“She’s a local mum. She’s not a career politician. She’s got a mortgage, she understands this local community.”

Mr Albanese said it was “in the hands” of voters to decide who would take the seat.”

—ADDITIONAL REPORTING STAFF REPORTERS