“Nothing lasts forever,” ambitious chief whip Francis Urquhart says in the opening scene of the television adaptation of Michael Dobbs’s classic novel, House of Cards.
While Anthony Albanese is under no leadership pressure and shows no sign of quitting the prime ministership anytime soon, Labor MPs often speculate about his successor. The compelling ABC documentary Nemesis has been a reminder of the constant manoeuvring within parties as to who will be the next leader and when.
Tony Abbott was keenly aware that former Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull aspired to be prime minister. Turnbull, in hindsight, believes Scott Morrison was angling for his job.
Politicians, party officials and advisers perennially speculate about who will be the next leader. And so it is with the Albanese government. Ministers and backbenchers often privately score the contenders, assess their support and hazard a guess when a vacancy in the party leadership might arise.
Albanese enjoys the prime ministership, has a strong work ethic and draws support from Labor’s Left and Right factions. He is a good judge of the mood within the party, knows its rhythms and traditions, and where the sources of power and influence are located. Being unchallenged for the leadership in 2019 and taking the party to victory in 2022 have given him unique authority.
But every prime minister is judged on the polls and continuing electoral victories. Albanese is also mindful of history and that no prime minister since Robert Menzies in 1966 – almost 60 years ago – has left office at a time of their own choosing. Albanese could be the first to emulate this rare example but for now is eyeing another election or two.
So who are the Labor MPs most likely to succeed Albanese when the inevitable time comes?
After two years in power, a hierarchy is emerging within party ranks that places Jim Chalmers and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek as most likely to take the leadership reins. They both want to lead the party and came close to nominating for leader after the 2019 election.
The early years of a government usually mark out potential successors: Andrew Peacock in Malcolm Fraser’s government, Paul Keating in Bob Hawke’s government, Peter Costello in John Howard’s government and Julia Gillard in Kevin Rudd’s government. They were not the only names mentioned in party ranks but they were the most ambitious.
However, the Albanese government has no leadership frontrunner. Indeed, there are other ministers no less ambitious than the Treasurer or Plibersek.
Deputy leader Richard Marles could put his hand up, but MPs are not sure if he is interested. Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Employment and Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke have indicated they want to lead the party.
The most popular Labor MP, according to private and public polling, is not in the race: Foreign Minister Penny Wong. She is also in the wrong chamber and is tipped to retire later this term or in the next. Health Minister Mark Butler also was seen as one to watch but told me years ago he would not run for leader.
Luck, timing and circumstances often winnow the field. Performance is always the key element coupled with supporters in the partyroom. But John Gorton won the Liberal leadership only because of Country Party leader John McEwen’s veto of Billy McMahon. Gough Whitlam was never universally popular in the Labor caucus but was seen by most as their best leadership option.
Aspirants also can fade over time. Joe Hockey told me he believed he had an understanding with Abbott that he would be the successor. Costello thought Howard was promoting Peter Reith to make a future leadership contest competitive.
Hawke wanted Kim Beazley to succeed him. Menzies lasted so long that Richard Casey, Percy Spender and Garfield Barwick lost interest and sought positions outside parliament.
The first two weeks of parliament this year served as a show ring for aspirants to impress their Labor colleagues seated behind, score points against the opposition in front and grab the attention of the press gallery above. Few voters watch question time but it is closely examined by MPs. The best performer, in my view, is Education Minister Jason Clare. But he does not aspire to be prime minister.
Chalmers has impressed MPs with changes to stage three income tax cuts and his broader agenda of institutional reform. Plibersek, a veteran MP, is popular within the party and would have strong appeal.
Burke has delivered for the labour movement with his workplace relations changes. Bowen has carriage of climate change policy, which remains a lodestar for the party. And Marles’s pitch would be as a loyal deputy with strong national security and defence credentials.
How Labor decides its next leader could determine who is the next leader. Labor’s rules require the leader be chosen by party members and MPs voting in equal proportion. Although this is now in the party’s constitution, caucus could revert to an MP-only ballot. This matter is contested within the party.
Some MPs insist an election would be conducted under the new rules; others say caucus is master of its own destiny.
Plibersek, from the Left faction, would be highly competitive in a membership ballot as most party members align with the Left. Chalmers would have the edge in caucus because the Right has a majority of MPs. But the NSW Right faction is the largest grouping in the caucus and Bowen and Burke are within its ranks. Burke also can count on strong union support.
It is not known who Albanese supports in the looming leadership contest. If he retires or resigns, he is unlikely to anoint a leader as Menzies did with Harold Holt. In any event, there is no indication of when Albanese will quit. He may have no choice if Labor is not re-elected.
But he may be eyeing an exit on his own terms. After all, he too knows nothing lasts forever.
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