Warm weekend weather short lived as another storm expected to hit Victoria

Although Victorians were told to brace for a hotter and drier summer with an El Nino declared, experts warn the peak is yet to come but the outlook is “complex and ever-changing”.

Warm weather expected to grace Victoria this weekend will be short lived, as experts warn possibly severe thunderstorms are on the way for much of the state.

Friday is tipped to reach 27 degrees in Melbourne with mostly sunny conditions.

The weekend will remain sunny and hot with Saturday and Sunday temperatures climbing to 30 degrees.

But community information officer at the Bureau of Meteorology Patch Clapp said the warm weather won’t last for long, with a potential thunderstorm expected on Sunday.

Although Victorians were told to brace for a hotter and drier summer with an El Nino declared, experts say the peak is yet to come but the outlook is “complex and ever-changing”.

“This weekend will be in the high 20s, but as we get into Sunday, conditions are expected to become humid and unsettled,” Mr Clapp said.

“There’s a chance of heavy rain and potential thunderstorms in Melbourne from Sunday afternoon, but it could reach outer parts of the state before then as storm activity moves west to east.

“It looks like there will be heavy rain, rather than particularly damaging winds or hail.”

Forecasts show Melburnians could expect up to 20mm of rain on Sunday.

Showers and potential thunderstorms are expected to continue into Monday when temperatures reach 27 degrees with a low of just 21 degrees and up to 20mm of rain expected.

Forecasts show Melburnians could expect up to 20mm of rain on Sunday. Picture: Wayne Taylor

It comes as wild weather battered the state across the holidays, with hail, damaging winds and floods causing havoc for many Victorians.

The nightmare weather event left four families in mourning.

Two bodies were discovered in campground floodwaters in East Gippsland, while a 44-year-old man was killed when a tree fell on him at his Caringal home.

A fourth person, a young boy, was killed after being struck by a large tree branch near Shepparton following ferocious storms.

Mr Clapp said it wasn’t “completely out of the blue” to be seeing increased storm activity during this time of year.

“It’s very possible to see storm activity throughout summer time as moisture is dragged down from up north, triggering these storms,” he said.

Monash University associate professor in the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment Dr Ailie Gallant said we were more likely to experience thunderstorms in the early weeks of summer.

“Summer storms are common, but Victoria and much of the east coast has been having more than what is considered normal,” she said.

“There is a lot of evidence that shows we are experiencing increased extremes during summer, that is linked to climate change – heatwaves have gotten hotter and longer, and extreme rainfall is increasing as well.”

A popular pub in South Gippsland, the Welshpool Hotel, flooded just days before New Year’s Eve. Picture: Supplied

An emergency worker during a rescue operation in flood waters at the Buchan campground in east Gippsland, Picture: Victoria Police, AFP

Dr Gallant said Victoria, particularly in Melbourne, generally tends to peak in temperatures in late January.

“The last week in January and the first week of February are usually the hottest,” she said.

“That being said, every summer is different. It could be a cooler and rainer summer this year.”

Dr Gallant said climate patterns are “complex” and constantly changing.

“When an El Nino is declared it doesn’t mean it will absolutely eventuate, it just means the risk is higher,” she said.

“El Nino is strongest during Spring in Victoria, which we saw in September when it was one of the hottest and driest on record.

“There are other things that can impact El Nino, competing influences that can reinforce it or act against it.”

She said these include warmer waters in the Tasman Sea and the Southern Annular Mode – a climate driver that can influence rainfall and temperature in Australia.

“The Southern Annular Mode at the moment is causing more of an easterly wind flow – winds are coming off the Tasman Sea – which brings moisture and therefore storms,” she said.