Victoria to swelter through driest spring in four years, amid El Nino alert

Victorians are set to swelter through what is anticipated to be one of the driest springs in four years, with hayfever and bushfires on the horizon.

Victorians are set to swelter through one of their driest springs since 2019, following a mild winter where temperatures weren’t far from breaking seasonal records.

Unlike the last three springs where Australia experienced La Nina, there’s a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino which would bring drier conditions and heat.

Bureau of Meteorology Senior Climatologist Jonathan Pollock told the Herald Sun the state would endure maximum and minimum temperatures higher than average.

“There’s more than triple the normal likelihood of unusually high maximum temperatures across the north and the western part of the state,” he said.

“(Meanwhile temperatures) will rise to more than four times the normal likelihood in some areas.”

BOM Rainfall and temperature long-range forecasts. Rainfall spring 2023.

Due to this, the rainfall forecast is looking below average – a drastic change from last year where Victoria experienced its wettest spring on record.

While some believe spring has come early this year, Mr Pollock confirmed this winter was warmer than usual based on preliminary data.

“The data is still coming through but winter 2023 probably ranks in the top 10 warmest winters on record for Victoria overall, for both maximum and minimum temperatures,” he said.

El Nino to bring hot and dry weather to Melbourne. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Crosling

The outlook for allergy and hayfever season

Allergy season is no longer restricted to spring, with hayfever sufferers reaching for the tissues a lot earlier than usual.

New research commissioned by FESS and Zaditen has found as the planet continues to warm up, the allergy season is starting earlier and lasting longer due to flowers blooming sooner.

“Spring is already the season where the largest number of Victorians report suffering from seasonal allergies,” Allergy & Anaphylaxis Australia educator Wendy Freeman said.

“This may be worsened this year with the expected increase in pollen count compared to last year.”

About one in two Victorians experience seasonal allergies, with more than three quarters of those people embarrassed by their allergy symptoms.

“Victorians can expect to see more people with visible allergy symptoms such as red or watery eyes and they need to be mindful that those suffering from seasonal allergies already report feeling embarrassed or self-conscious of their symptoms,” Dr Freeman said.

She added almost half of all seasonal allergy sufferers are concerned about the impact the bushfire season will have on their health, with Dr Freeman urging those affected to speak to their doctor or pharmacist about relief measures.

Hayfever season has come early due to warmer than usual temperatures. Picture Zoe Phillips

Fire season outlook following three year hiatus

After three years of lower risk fire seasons due to La Nina, this year’s bushfire outlook is quite dire with an earlier start to the season expected.

The Australian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) said despite planned burnings conducted in the area, there is a higher than normal potential for bushfires to occur in parts of Gippsland.

Meanwhile, due to drier and warmer weather expected for spring, there is a higher chance the 2023-2024 bushfire season will commence early.

“There is a high likelihood that the bushfire season of 2023-24 will commence earlier across much of central, western and northern Victoria,” AFAC said in its seasonal bushfire outlook for spring.

BOM Rainfall and temperature long-range forecasts. Temperature spring 2023.

“In agricultural areas, elevated grass fuel loads will likely cure earlier than most years and may present an elevated risk until harvest occurs.”

Fortunately there’s better news for remaining parts of the state with the bushfire risk for these areas at its usual level.

Mr Pollock added the bushfire forecast for summer remains unknown, with AFAC urging Victorians to ensure their homes and families are fire ready.