The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Chisholm, held by Julia Banks

Chisholm will be a seat to watch after incumbent Julia Banks’ dramatic departure from the Liberal Party, with two female Chinese-Australian candidates preparing to face off.

Chisholm

Incumbent: Julia Banks (moving seats)

Margin: Liberal 3.4 per cent

Candidates:

Liberal: Gladys Liu

Labor: Jennifer Yang

Local issues:

Migration, population, education, health, social issues, cost of living.

AFTER BANKS’ DEPARTURE, A SEAT TO WATCH

Chisholm will be a seat to watch after incumbent Julia Banks’ explosive departure from the Liberal Party.

She won’t be recontesting, preferring to switch seats to challenge Health Minister Greg Hunt in Flinders, so the key battle in Chisholm will be between Labor’s Jennifer Yang and the Liberals’ Gladys Liu.

THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN VICTORIA:

CORANGAMITE: Trouble ahead for Libs

DEAKIN: Sukkar’s seat could go either way

FLINDERS: The ugly fight of the federal election

HIGGINS: Wentworth-style battle for O’Dwyer’s seat

INDI: Indi’s key question: stay independent?

KOOYONG: Frydenberg under pressure

LA TROBE: Seat set to go to preferences again

MACNAMARA: ‘Anything can happen’ in Danby’s old seat

MALLEE: Nats face fight after ‘sugar baby‘ scandal

Julia Banks dramatically resigned from the Liberal Party last November. Picture: Getty Images

Critics believe Banks’ decision to switch seats was partly because both major party candidates are Chinese-Australian in a seat where almost 20 per cent of voters have Chinese heritage.

Liu, a maverick campaigner and prominent member of the Chinese community, will benefit from a recent electorate redistribution which boosted the party’s margin from 1.2 per cent to 3.4 per cent.

But the controversy over Banks’ exit, Malcolm Turnbull’s ousting and the perception of ongoing division will hurt her chances.

Chisholm federal Labor candidate Jennifer Yang has a strong profile. Picture: AAP

Liberal candidate Gladys Liu will benefit from a recent electorate redistribution. Picture: Supplied

She’s also facing Yang, who has a strong profile after running for Melbourne lord mayor in 2018 and previously working as the mayor of Melbourne council area Manningham.

“This will be touch and go for the Libs, already reeling from Banks’s dumping of the Liberals and the bad press regarding women in the Liberal party,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said.

Griffith University political scientist Dr Paul Williams said Chisholm would be “touch and go” for the Liberal Party. Picture Supplied

Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said Chisholm was going to be “quite challenging for the Liberal Party to hold onto”. Picture: Supplied

“Labor will likely pick this up on the general Victoria swing to Labor alone, but the Banks drama could see the swing greater here than the national mean.”

Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said Chisholm was going to be “quite challenging for the Liberal Party to hold onto”.

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras predicted Labor would win Chisholm.

It’s unclear how the Liberals’ preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play out in the seat.

CHISOLM HOT TOPICS: HEALTH CARE, EDUCATION AND CONGESTION

Congestion, health care, Labor’s so-called retiree tax and education funding are some of the big issues candidates are speaking to Chisholm voters about.

A social media analysis by Storyful Australia also shows both the Liberals’ Gladys Liu and Labor’s Jennifer Yang are big on getting out into their community to win over voters, rather than spruiking big policy ideas.

Both candidates are also spruiking their ties to the Chinese Australian community in Chisholm.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN VICTORIA

Monash University Political Scientist Dr Zareh Ghazarian says issues within Victoria’s state Liberal party could spill over as people decide who they will vote for federally.

“Voters tend to be aware of the difference between state and federal governments and party leaders, so we would expect them to vote on what federal Labor has promised rather than their experience of the Andrews government,” he said.

However the bitter public divisions within Victorian Liberals since last November’s election loss would not endear them to voters, he said, and that instability — coupled with similar ructions at the federal level — “will play a big role in deciding who people vote for”.

Dr Ghazarian says infrastructure, the economy and employment will be the issues residents want to hear about pre-election.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, Lecturer in Politics, School of Political and Social Inquiry at Monash University.

“The trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been showing a swing towards the Labor Party. This means that any Liberal MP who holds their seat with a margin of five per cent or less is in for a hard time to keep their job,” he said.

“There is also a complication at this election. The Electoral Commission has undertaken a major redistribution of federal seats which has resulted in at least two Victorian seats currently held by the Liberal Party to be notionally Labor (eg, if the seat boundary was used at the 2016 election, Labor would have won it).”

Dr Ghazarian said because of this key seats Corangamite and Dunkley are deemed to be notionally Labor so both sitting MPs will be starting from a disadvantage.

“We would expect the Liberal Party to pour in resources and campaigning staff into these two seats in order to hold them. If it can’t hold these seats, the party will not be able to hold government,” he said.

Dr Ghazarian expects whoever takes Chisholm will win government.

“It is very difficult for individual MPs to resist a swing and, if it is as strong as opinion polls have suggested, these ultra marginal seats will be the first to go on election night,” he said.

— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian

Originally published as The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Chisholm, held by Julia Banks