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Patrick Gibbons

Forget nuclear weapons – could this be the end of Iran’s regime?

For 46 years, Western analysts have got it wrong when it came to predicting the regime’s end. This time, however, it could be different.

In a fluid environment where the US appears to be building up for a targeted strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, President Trump calling for Tehran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER”, and the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowing to fight while claiming the Iranian people are with him, the scene is set for what is the regime’s biggest challenge since the 1988 ceasefire with Iraq.

Back then, the Islamic Republic’s survival was at risk. The eight-year war with Iraq saw hundreds of thousands of Iranians slaughtered for no gain and Iran internationally isolated. The country, along with its political leadership, was desperate for a resolution, no matter how galling.

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Patrick Gibbons is a former Tehran-based diplomat and partner at corporate advisory firm Orizontas.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/forget-nuclear-weapons-could-this-be-the-end-of-iran-s-regime-20250619-p5m8wi