A war with Ukraine would bring nothing good for Russia, no matter how it plays out. Neither Ukraine itself nor its accession to NATO poses a threat to Russia. A stable and effective democracy in Ukraine threatens the Russian regime, but that’s quite another question.

A war would bring Russia enormous human losses, a sharp deterioration in its economic position, an exacerbation of all social problems, total isolation, and the transformation of the country into a military encampment.

Foreign Policy