History has a strange way of repeating. The death of three US servicemen in Jordan at the hands of an Iranian-backed militia and the retaliatory strikes have raised the stakes in what could be an expanding Middle East conflict.

With parallels to Jimmy Carter’s 1980 failed re-election, it threatens to derail President Joe Biden’s campaign. But unlike 1980, the recent ratcheting up of hostilities has not yet been reflected in energy markets. There are a number of reasons for this.