In his second incarnation as US president, Donald Trump will be more certain of his own instincts and much more demanding than the Trump we saw between 2016 and 2020.

This is big news for Australia, particularly because of Trump’s approach to alliances and what that might mean for the AUKUS submarine deal. He is likely to see AUKUS as a deal America should get more out of than President Joe Biden managed to get. Appeals to mateship and the unbreakable bonds of our alliance are unlikely to cut much mustard.