The Solomon Islands’ new agreement with China marks the worst Australian security policy failure in the South Pacific since World War II, almost certainly making Chinese warships a more permanent feature in the Coral Sea.

While Canberra can claim to be blindsided, this is precisely what close observers have been warning about since the 2009 defence white paper (ridiculed by the Liberals at the time) charted the biggest expansion of Australian naval power since 1945.