A cloud of gloom hovered over the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting this month. With the global economy experiencing a synchronised slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. Among other things, investors and economic policymakers must worry about a renewed escalation in the Sino-American trade and technology war. A military conflict between the United States and Iran would be felt globally. The same could be true of “hard” Brexit by the United Kingdom or a collision between the IMF and Argentina’s incoming Peronist government.
In a speech this week, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said negative interests were unlikely in Australia. afr
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Nouriel Roubini is Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team.
