January 2024
The spoilers are lurking in the soft landing of 2024
Only China seems set for a certain bumpy landing this year. But it would take precious few shocks to unsettle everything else.
November 2023
How the Gaza war could threaten the global economy
World markets are failing to price in the dangerous chance that Iran will be drawn into a regional firestorm
June 2023
The US is headed for a tropical storm, not a severe hurricane
Even a short and shallow recession – let alone a hard landing – would cause significant economic and financial damage.
March 2023
Why India is standing at a crossroads
India has done well using its big conglomerates as national champions. But that also brings traps that the country must avoid.
January 2023
Why the great stagflationary debt crisis is upon us
Governments fighting wars against revisionist states, climate change, pandemics, tech disruption, and inequality will be sorely tempted to inflate their way out of debt.
March 2022
Stagflationary shock of Cold War II won’t be transitory
The knock-on effects on global growth and inflation from the Ukraine crisis will be a nightmare scenario for central banks that risk being damned if they do or don’t lift interest rates
January 2022
Mounting risks cloud 2022 market outlook
Inflation, slower growth, geopolitical threats, and systemic problems are set to keep investors on the edge of their seats in 2022.
August 2021
Joe Biden’s economic neo-populism
President Biden has more in common with Donald Trump than with any of the neoliberal administrations that preceded either of them.
April 2021
Stagflation is a growing threat to the global economy
Over the next few years, loose monetary and fiscal policies will start to trigger persistent inflationary, and eventually stagflationary, pressure. In due course we could even witness the return of 1970s-style malaise.
March 2021
The COVID-19 bubble is heading for a hard landing
The US Federal Reserve is now a prisoner of the forces it has unleashed. The COVID-19 bubble will crash in a stagflationary bust.
October 2020
Market nightmare of a stolen US election
Anything less than a Democrat clean sweep will leave Donald Trump trying to claim victory. Then markets should worry.
September 2020
Why Biden is better for business than Trump will ever be
The Democrats have plans that will be good for jobs, growth and markets. Trump offers only his own pluto-populist ambitions.
June 2020
This is not the birth of European federation, it's just more muddling
The EU's $1.2 trillion rescue plan is neither true debt mutualisation nor a real fix for the bloc's north-south divisions.
February 2020
A chaotic US election could trigger a global crisis
America's geopolitical rivals have every reason to hack this year's US elections. The results could be devastating.
January 2020
Financial markets are deluded on Iran
The risk of a growth stall or even a global recession is now much higher and rising thanks to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
Alliance-wrecker Trump will make China great again
Donald Trump is the real-life “Manchurian Candidate” that Beijing wants to see re-elected in 2020.
November 2019
Don't bet on markets rising as risks to growth escalate
There is a disconnect between rising equity values and the fundamental threats to the global economy.
October 2019
Why modern monetary policy will do real harm in a crisis
Policymakers are sure to hit the QE button to avoid a recession. But loose settings in response to supply shocks will create stagflation and a zombie economy.