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Nouriel Roubini

The COVID-19 bubble is heading for a hard landing

The US Federal reserve is now a prisoner of the forces it has unleashed. The COVID-19 bubble will crash in a stagflationary bust.

The US economy’s K-shaped recovery is under way. Those with stable full-time jobs, benefits, and a financial cushion are faring well as sharemarkets climb to new highs. Those who are unemployed or partially employed in low-value-added blue-collar and service jobs – the new “precariat” – are saddled with debt, have little financial wealth, and face diminishing economic prospects.

These trends indicate a growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. The new sharemarket highs mean nothing to most people. The bottom 50 per cent of the wealth distribution holds just 0.7 per cent of total equity-market assets, whereas the top 10 per cent commands 87.2 per cent, and the top 1 per cent holds 51.8 per cent. The 50 richest people have as much wealth as the 165 million people at the bottom.

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Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-covid-19-bubble-is-heading-for-a-hard-landing-20210305-p5781h